The process to end Libya’s national divide has long been a game of smoke and mirrors. Talks and negotiations that go nowhere, with years of meetings and decrees from Benghazi, Tripoli, and New York that produce grand statements with little substance. This, combined with a constant rotation of Libyan politicians, has left the political process hollow for some time.
Now the United States, desperate for a foreign policy win, is making a renewed push to create a new Libyan national process. Spearheaded by Senior Advisor for Africa Massad Boulos, recent efforts have actually gained traction, and are shaping up to be the first serious efforts in almost five years. Notably, this process is similar to one pushed in 2021 by Libyan actors that had been blocked by both the U.S. and United Nations at the time.
The outcome of this Boulos process will have a significant impact on the country militarily, politically, and especially economically. With the world realizing the limitations of global energy supply chains, there is a growing international interest in a unified Libya it can work with. But while a new government would simplify things, risk and competition will still remain.
From political theater to political reality
Libya’s current limbo has existed since 2021, when planned presidential elections failed to materialize, and the House of Representatives (HoR) announced the creation of the Government of National Stability (GNS) in the east of the country.
