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The Geopolitical Desk

The Geopolitical Desk is an independent media platform that provides actionable business intelligence and field-informed analysis on some of the world’s most complex regions.

All our reporting is built on firsthand access and human intelligence, for an audience of intelligent humans.

Our work exists to support diplomats, foreign policy teams, energy analysts, commodity traders, business executives and researchers who need to act early and with confidence in frontier markets across the Middle East and North Africa.

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Gulf States and the Critical Minerals Race: From Deserts to Supply Chains
Gulf States and the Critical Minerals Race: From Deserts to Supply Chains

Critical minerals, from lithium and cobalt to rare earth elements, have become the backbone of modern industries, powering everything from defense systems to electric vehicle batteries. In today’s fractured geopolitical landscape, they represent more than resources: they are leverage.

GULF DESK   -   Oct 11, 2025
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EU Ambassador and Italy Push for Release of Confiscated Arms Shipment for Libya
EU Ambassador and Italy Push for Release of Confiscated Arms Shipment for Libya

Military equipment originally destined for Libya has been held in France for years, but some European politicians are now pushing to see it delivered.

LIBYA DESK   -   Oct 10, 2025
Free
Trump’s Hard Line on Venezuela: A Quietly Escalating Conflict
Trump’s Hard Line on Venezuela: A Quietly Escalating Conflict

While global attention fixates on wars in Gaza and Ukraine, a dangerous confrontation is quietly brewing in the Americas. President Donald Trump has ended diplomatic outreach with Venezuela’s government, signaling a shift toward military solutions.

GOVERNMENT & DIPLOMACY   -   Oct 10, 2025
Free
Moscow prepares to host Russia-Arab Summit
Moscow prepares to host Russia-Arab Summit

With the middle east undergoing major changes, Russia is looking to reestablish its relations with Arab nations.

GULF DESK   -   Oct 08, 2025
Members
Libya’s energy sector: high risk, high reward
Libya’s energy sector: high risk, high reward

Libya’s energy sector remains both the backbone of its economy and a mirror of its political fragility. The announcement of its first international oil and gas licensing round in 18 years earlier this year has been a welcome development and triggered renewed interest from IOCs and investors.

LIBYA DESK   -   Oct 07, 2025
Free
Morocco’s Gen Z rebellion: echoes of 2011, warnings for the future
Morocco’s Gen Z rebellion: echoes of 2011, warnings for the future

Struggling with failing services, corruption, and high youth unemployment, Morocco is now finding itself caught in a global wave of Gen-Z anger.

NORTH AFRICA DESK   -   Oct 03, 2025
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How many lobbyists does Dabaiba need?
How many lobbyists does Dabaiba need?

As Libya's problems worse, Dabaiba continues to focus on his governments image instead of ensuring that his government functions.

LIBYA DESK   -   Oct 02, 2025
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Libya’s two-track dilemma: follow the UN or DC?
Libya’s two-track dilemma: follow the UN or DC?

The United States and the United Nations now find themselves pursuing their own initiatives in Libya. Will there processes coexist or compete?

LIBYA DESK   -   Sep 26, 2025
Gulf States and the Critical Minerals Race: From Deserts to Supply Chains
Members
Gulf States and the Critical Minerals Race: From Deserts to Supply Chains

Critical minerals, from lithium and cobalt to rare earth elements, have become the backbone of modern industries, powering everything from defense systems to electric vehicle batteries. In today’s fractured geopolitical landscape, they represent more than resources: they are leverage.

GULF DESK   -   Oct 11, 2025
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How many lobbyists does Dabaiba need?
How many lobbyists does Dabaiba need?

As Libya's problems worse, Dabaiba continues to focus on his governments image instead of ensuring that his government functions.

LIBYA DESK   -   Oct 02, 2025
Members
Libya’s two-track dilemma: follow the UN or DC?
Libya’s two-track dilemma: follow the UN or DC?

The United States and the United Nations now find themselves pursuing their own initiatives in Libya. Will there processes coexist or compete?

LIBYA DESK   -   Sep 26, 2025
Members
Palestine and the politics of low effort
Palestine and the politics of low effort

The recognition of a Palestinian state by a slew of Western countries does little to change things on the ground, but opens up the real possibility of Israeli backlash. Here European states will need to take a stand, and buy time as possible change in the U.S. brews.

MIDDLE EAST DESK   -   Sep 25, 2025
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From ally to liability? Turkey corners Dabaiba in Tripoli
From ally to liability? Turkey corners Dabaiba in Tripoli

A recent Turkish mediated agreement between the GNU Prime Minister and Rada have cooled tensions for now, but risks still loom as Dabaiba continues to look for war.

LIBYA DESK   -   Sep 21, 2025
Members
The UN's new roadmap for Libya and its upcoming challenges
The UN's new roadmap for Libya and its upcoming challenges

The United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL)’s new political roadmap for resolving the national crisis has received rare praise across Libya’s political spectrum. It presents a real opportunity for success, but only if UNSMIL can capitalize on its momentum.

LIBYA DESK   -   Aug 28, 2025
Free
Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the future of Eurasian connectivity
Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the future of Eurasian connectivity

On 8 August, the Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders signed an agreement in Washington that is poised to end more than three decades of bilateral tensions and open the way to better connectivity, not only in the South Caucasus but also for the Middle Corridor linking China to Europe.

IRAN DESK   -   Aug 25, 2025
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What is the point of the UN Support Mission in Libya?
What is the point of the UN Support Mission in Libya?

In recent years, UNSMIL has failed to provide meaningful leadership, allowing Libya’s political crisis to deepen with no clear path forward. While it has thus far fallen short of its mandate, it still retains the opportunity to recalibrate, though time and public confidence are running out.

LIBYA DESK   -   Aug 04, 2025
Members
What really happened in Suwayda?
What really happened in Suwayda?

A ten-day episode of fighting erupted across Suwayda, in southern Syria, on July 12. What began as a local clash between Druze militias and Sunni Bedouin tribal armed groups quickly spiraled into a full-scale tribal war on a national level.

SYRIA DESK   -   Jul 24, 2025
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Regaining Europe’s neutrality towards Iran
Regaining Europe’s neutrality towards Iran

Europe’s current Iran policy is confused, reactive and counterproductive. This special report outlines the shortcomings of current policy, identifies opportunities for realignment and recommends specific steps ahead of the July 25 Istanbul meeting to restore Europe’s credibility and influence.

IRAN DESK   -   Jul 24, 2025
Members
Trump envoy to begin Maghreb tour as US pushes for diplomatic reset in North Africa
Trump envoy to begin Maghreb tour as US pushes for diplomatic reset in North Africa

EXCLUSIVE – Massad Boulos, U.S. President Donald Trump’s Special Presidential Advisor on Arab and Middle Eastern Affairs, is preparing to embark on a tour of the Maghreb in the coming days.

NORTH AFRICA DESK   -   Jul 20, 2025
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Egypt mediates between Libyan and Sudanese armies
Egypt mediates between Libyan and Sudanese armies

The growing regional prominence of the Libyan National Army (LNA) has led Egypt to seek a stronger relationship with al-Rajma in order to address the geopolitical concerns of Cairo.

NORTH AFRICA DESK   -   Jul 19, 2025
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Saddam Haftar begins Algeria charm offensive
Saddam Haftar begins Algeria charm offensive

The Commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA) Ground Forces, Saddam Haftar, hopes to reset relations with Algeria, one of the few regional supporters of the rival Government of National Unity (GNU).

LIBYA DESK   -   Jul 18, 2025
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Washington’s evolving policy and the tribal balance in northeast Syria
Washington’s evolving policy and the tribal balance in northeast Syria

With the overthrow of Bashar al‑Assad on December 8, 2024, the diplomatic cards in Syria have been completely reshuffled, ushering in a new phase of uncertainty and opportunity. In this context, the United States is subtly but significantly recalibrating its posture in northeast Syria.

SYRIA DESK   -   Jul 17, 2025
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Libya’s oil output falls short of expectations
Libya’s oil output falls short of expectations

The Libyan oil sector continues to develop critical infrastructure, but is ultimately hampered by growing budgetary challenges.

OIL & GAS   -   Jul 04, 2025
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Tripoli remains in suspense as tensions continue
Tripoli remains in suspense as tensions continue

Prime Minister Dabaiba continues to hold the capital in suspense as he slowly tries to gain an advantage over Rada without invoking a reaction

Jul 01, 2025
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Members
Gulf States and the Critical Minerals Race: From Deserts to Supply Chains
Gulf States and the Critical Minerals Race: From Deserts to Supply Chains

Critical minerals, from lithium and cobalt to rare earth elements, have become the backbone of modern industries, powering everything from defense systems to electric vehicle batteries. In today’s fractured geopolitical landscape, they represent more than resources: they are leverage.

GULF DESK   -   Oct 11, 2025
Paid
EU Ambassador and Italy Push for Release of Confiscated Arms Shipment for Libya
EU Ambassador and Italy Push for Release of Confiscated Arms Shipment for Libya

Military equipment originally destined for Libya has been held in France for years, but some European politicians are now pushing to see it delivered.

LIBYA DESK   -   Oct 10, 2025
Paid
Libya Political Risk Report (October 10)
Libya Political Risk Report (October 10)

This report covers political and security updates in Libya for the week of October 3 - October 9, 2025. Clients can download the full report at the end of the summary.

LIBYA DESK   -   Oct 10, 2025
Free
Trump’s Hard Line on Venezuela: A Quietly Escalating Conflict
Trump’s Hard Line on Venezuela: A Quietly Escalating Conflict

While global attention fixates on wars in Gaza and Ukraine, a dangerous confrontation is quietly brewing in the Americas. President Donald Trump has ended diplomatic outreach with Venezuela’s government, signaling a shift toward military solutions.

GOVERNMENT & DIPLOMACY   -   Oct 10, 2025
Free
Moscow prepares to host Russia-Arab Summit
Moscow prepares to host Russia-Arab Summit

With the middle east undergoing major changes, Russia is looking to reestablish its relations with Arab nations.

GULF DESK   -   Oct 08, 2025
Members
Libya’s energy sector: high risk, high reward
Libya’s energy sector: high risk, high reward

Libya’s energy sector remains both the backbone of its economy and a mirror of its political fragility. The announcement of its first international oil and gas licensing round in 18 years earlier this year has been a welcome development and triggered renewed interest from IOCs and investors.

LIBYA DESK   -   Oct 07, 2025
Free
Morocco’s Gen Z rebellion: echoes of 2011, warnings for the future
Morocco’s Gen Z rebellion: echoes of 2011, warnings for the future

Struggling with failing services, corruption, and high youth unemployment, Morocco is now finding itself caught in a global wave of Gen-Z anger.

NORTH AFRICA DESK   -   Oct 03, 2025
Paid
Libya Political Risk Report (October 3)
Libya Political Risk Report (October 3)

This report covers political and security updates in Libya for the week of September 26 - October 2, 2025. Clients can download the full report at the end of the summary.

LIBYA DESK   -   Oct 03, 2025
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