Strategic insights from the world's most complex regions

On 8 August, the Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders signed an agreement in Washington that is poised to end more than three decades of bilateral tensions and open the way to better connectivity, not only in the South Caucasus but also for the Middle Corridor linking China to Europe.

In recent years, UNSMIL has failed to provide meaningful leadership, allowing Libya’s political crisis to deepen with no clear path forward. While it has thus far fallen short of its mandate, it still retains the opportunity to recalibrate, though time and public confidence are running out.

A ten-day episode of fighting erupted across Suwayda, in southern Syria, on July 12. What began as a local clash between Druze militias and Sunni Bedouin tribal armed groups quickly spiraled into a full-scale tribal war on a national level.

Europe’s current Iran policy is confused, reactive and counterproductive. This special report outlines the shortcomings of current policy, identifies opportunities for realignment and recommends specific steps ahead of the July 25 Istanbul meeting to restore Europe’s credibility and influence.

EXCLUSIVE – Massad Boulos, U.S. President Donald Trump’s Special Presidential Advisor on Arab and Middle Eastern Affairs, is preparing to embark on a tour of the Maghreb in the coming days.

The growing regional prominence of the Libyan National Army (LNA) has led Egypt to seek a stronger relationship with al-Rajma in order to address the geopolitical concerns of Cairo.

The Commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA) Ground Forces, Saddam Haftar, hopes to reset relations with Algeria, one of the few regional supporters of the rival Government of National Unity (GNU).

With the overthrow of Bashar al‑Assad on December 8, 2024, the diplomatic cards in Syria have been completely reshuffled, ushering in a new phase of uncertainty and opportunity. In this context, the United States is subtly but significantly recalibrating its posture in northeast Syria.

The Libyan oil sector continues to develop critical infrastructure, but is ultimately hampered by growing budgetary challenges.

Prime Minister Dabaiba continues to hold the capital in suspense as he slowly tries to gain an advantage over Rada without invoking a reaction

Tehran is weighing diplomacy against strategic ambiguity, seeking to revive nuclear negotiations, rally the Global South and preserve regime survival without surrendering core redlines.

Diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis are ongoing, with the United States setting a two-week timeframe. Yet, mistrust and the continued escalation of attacks risk expanding the conflict.

Neither Israel nor the U.S. strategic objectives are set in stone and will continue to oscillate between neutering what they perceive as Iranian threats or pursuing regime change. This creates a highly volatile environment.

Israel’s latest strike on Iran marks a sharp escalation, killing key military commanders and damaging strategic assets. Iran’s response is unfolding in stages, aiming to restore deterrence without triggering full-scale war. This article considers the strategic implications and regional risks ahead.

Trump's "deal or kneel" rhetoric frames Iran's future as a stark choice: compliance or chaos. Yet, all signs point to protracted negotiations and tactical maneuvers rather than swift resolutions or outright war.