What are the conditions for a ceasefire in the U.S.–Israel war on Iran?

Assessing public sentiment is always tricky in Iran, especially now that the internet is down and segments of society stand on opposite sides.

This is why Iran coverage is so polarised. State and semi-official news outlets focus on pro-government rallies or what are often scripted interviews.

On the other side, networks that were central in relaying January protest footage and have access to Starlink or top-of-the-line VPNs push out footage showing people quietly but passionately supporting the air campaign against their rulers, echoing calls by the IDF to amplify opposition voices in Iran.

In the middle of this political show, the overall sentiment is more mixed.

People oscillate between shock and anger toward what they see as an illegal attack, concern over their immediate security and long-term future in Iran, or anxious trepidation toward the possibility of a better tomorrow without the Islamic Republic.

The future is murky. For those desiring change, the mood depends largely on which geopolitical outlook they hold.

Some adopt a uniquely Iranian perspective that carries excessive reverence toward the United States and high hopes for Israel’s motives in seeking an Iranian ally.

Others take a more grounded geopolitical outlook, looking at the U.S. regional imprint since 2001.

Now that the war enters its second week and more civilian infrastructure is struck inside Iran, the population is bound to feel growing fright, anger, and patriotic awakening.

This is exactly the kind of signal that often disappears in the noise of wartime reporting. GPD Intelligence subscribers get insight on these early shifts before they become market-moving headlines.

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The debate beyond Iran

Outside Iran, there is no serious platform defending the Islamic Republic, which has burnt through much of its soft power since its faulty stance during the Arab Spring, its consecutive repression of domestic protests, and its attachment to an Islamism that is reviled in the West and losing ground in the region.

Although laughed at in right-wing circles and misused by parts of the Left, anti-imperialism remains a central movement shaping Middle Eastern conflicts and motivating hearts and minds.

However, Tehran’s foreign policy missteps have severely weakened its ability to rally such support.

Even when rallies occur, such as in Pakistan, they cannot translate into any geopolitically salient force.

As a result, the Iran debate abroad is split between those who see a golden opportunity to reshape the Middle East, return from exile, or remove an ideological adversary, and those who rightly point to the illegality and heedlessness of the war but struggle to identify a credible short-term path away from the Islamic Republic.

The problem with speaking for “the Iranian People”

Now that another foreign intervention has taken shape, political entrepreneurs increasingly style themselves as the voice of the “Iranian people”.

They draw attention and support despite peddling disinformation, hidden agendas, and a lack of planning.

Revolutionary periods inevitably compress individual voices into sweeping narratives about “the people”.

But Iran, like any society, is deeply diverse.

Reducing it to a binary struggle risks falling into the same Manichean logic that has shaped so much Western interpretation of the region. Ironically, that worldview may be Ancient Iran’s most enduring export.

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This week’s coverage focuses on the widening war around Iran and the second-order shocks beginning to ripple across the region.

What began as targeted strikes has quickly evolved into a conflict with implications for global energy markets, shipping routes, regional militant networks and the internal stability of the Islamic Republic itself.

Let's get into it.

How the Iran war could disrupt oil, shipping and global aviation

What happened: Military escalation between Iran, Israel and the U.S. has pushed the region toward scenarios that could directly affect global aviation routes, maritime traffic and energy infrastructure across the Gulf.

Why it matters: Iran’s strongest leverage does not lie in conventional military victory but in its ability to disrupt global markets. Even limited interference with shipping or aviation corridors could send shockwaves through energy prices and insurance markets.

What it means: The escalation ladder still has multiple rungs. Disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, targeting of Gulf infrastructure, or wider proxy involvement remain plausible pathways if Tehran seeks to regain deterrence.

Subscriber insight: This briefing maps the specific escalation triggers that could push oil above $100 and disrupt Gulf aviation corridors.

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Why escalation may be Iran’s only working strategy

What happened: As the conflict deepens, Tehran faces a strategic dilemma: accepting a ceasefire risks exposing weakness, while escalation offers a way to impose costs on its adversaries.

Why it matters: Iran cannot match Israel and the United States militarily. Its most effective strategy may instead be to make the conflict economically and politically unsustainable for its opponents.

What it means: Expect Tehran to rely increasingly on asymmetric tools. Market disruption, proxy pressure and calibrated regional escalation could become the core pillars of its strategy.

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Modern warfare in Tehran: is the air campaign working?

What happened: Israel’s air campaign over Iran has expanded significantly, targeting infrastructure and strategic sites across Tehran and other key areas.

Why it matters: Airpower can degrade military capabilities but rarely determines political outcomes on its own. The effectiveness of the campaign depends on whether it can disrupt Iran’s command structures and war-making capacity.

What it means: If the campaign fails to generate decisive effects, pressure may grow for broader escalation, potentially involving expanded regional operations or deeper U.S. involvement.

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Over the past week, the risk environment in the Middle East has rapidly shifted to the most acute storyline we outlined in our recent scenario planning, with a massive military campaign against Iran. 

The February 28 attack against Iran quickly morphed into a regional war, with the Gulf’s global aviation hubs facing paralysis, marine traffic disrupted across the Persian Gulf, and energy infrastructure sustaining limited damage that could be the harbinger of a global crisis. 

While Iranian missile launches have drastically decreased in quantity, a lot more risk aggravation is to be expected as the region digs deeper into its worst-case scenario. 

In recent client briefings we have been tracking three signals in particular.

First: The Islamic Republic stabilising or faltering

Iran’s governance is not upset by decapitation strikes, at least in the short-term.

Wartime protests are increasingly unlikely and, as the conflict persists, the natural political course is to give way to a barracks state where stabilisation equals a return to the Islamic Republic’s radical fundamentals.

Who is appointed as Ali Khamenei’s successor will highlight whether this is the path agreed upon by elite factions, in which case more decapitation strikes are to be expected which could tip the balance toward partial state collapse, with large-scale regional consequences. 

Second: escalation thresholds in the U.S.–Israel confrontation with Iran

Tehran knows that a ceasefire now will highlight its weakness and forego any chance of medium-term stability by inviting future strikes.

Israel wants to diminish the Iranian state apparatus as much as possible while the U.S. still assesses its best course of action, which increasingly points to a prolonged campaign.

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None of these trends benefit diplomacy, and could lead to scenarios deemed impossible early-on such as the deployment of elite U.S. troop contingents to take over parts of Iran’s port infrastructure or support local insurgents in border areas. 

Third: the strategic vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz

Iran’s first steps this week, which include Strait of Hormuz partial closure and limited targeting of Gulf energy infrastructure, have not exhausted its escalation playbook.

Tehran has for now only held back because its own energy infrastructure has been left untouched, but the worse the war goes for it the less restraint it will likely show.

This is especially true if time alone does not guarantee Tehran a market upheaval including oil barrels above $100 or a cessation of hostilities on terms that can prevent a future deflagration.

The entry of Yemen’s Houthis into the war is one of Tehran’s remaining wild cards to cut short alternative tradeways for top Gulf commodities. 

These dynamics do not exist in isolation.

Leadership succession, military escalation, shipping security, regional proxy networks and even partial state collapse are all part of the same downward spiral facing not only the Middle East but the world economy.

The problem is that most professionals encounter these radical developments only after they become headlines.

By that point markets are forced to scramble in response to a situation it had not fully anticipated.

GPD Intelligence exists to surface these signals earlier.

Subscribers receive structured briefings designed for professionals working across energy, finance, diplomacy, security and trade.

Each briefing focuses on:

• scenario logic rather than headline summaries
• early warning indicators worth tracking
• source-led reporting from inside the region
• analysis you can share internally without rewriting

A single misjudged escalation signal can move shipping routes, insurance costs, oil prices and regional political risk overnight.

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The conflict between Israel, the United States and Iran may be edging toward a worst-case escalation.

Strikes reportedly reaching as far as Kuwait International Airport and the Palm in Dubai, allegedly via drones, mark an unprecedented widening of the operational theatre.

Whether these incidents reflect a mismanaged Iranian response or a deliberate effort to extend pressure beyond U.S. military assets into the wider Gulf arena remains unclear.

Either interpretation carries risk. Expanding the battlefield geographically increases the probability of miscalculation and unintended retaliation.

Some accounts suggest hotels were targeted because military personnel had been temporarily rebased there. Even if accurate, striking such sites would represent a significant escalation.

Civilian-adjacent targets, particularly in Gulf commercial hubs, are politically explosive and likely to invite broader retaliation and international backlash.

At the same time, warnings tied to potential disruption in the Strait of Hormuz are already affecting maritime traffic.

Commercial vessels are receiving alerts and are expected to comply. In this environment, perception alone can move markets and alter military calculations.

The mere suggestion of a closure or partial disruption of Hormuz introduces volatility into energy pricing and shipping insurance premiums. Energy security has now moved to the centre of the battlefield.

We previously outlined the possible escalation pathways, mapping both short, high-intensity strike cycles and drawn-out regional war scenarios.

The current trajectory suggests that what began as calibrated force signalling risks mutating into a broader economic and geographic confrontation.

Shock without state collapse

The confirmation of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death is historic. It is not, however, synonymous with state collapse.

The Islamic Republic moved quickly to prevent any perception of a vacuum.

A temporary leadership council has been formed, composed of the president, the chief justice and a senior jurist, all long regarded as loyal to Khamenei. They will oversee responsibilities until the Assembly of Experts selects a new Supreme Leader.

The speed of the transition signals prior contingency planning.

With a new war now underway in West Asia, it is important not to understate what has just occurred.

In the days leading up to escalation, a coordinated diplomatic and lobbying push by Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, alongside Egypt and other regional actors, sought to pull U.S. President Donald Trump back from Israel’s push for military action against Iran. That effort failed.

Once again, the collective position of U.S. regional partners has taken a back seat to Israel’s strategic priorities. The result is a new phase of direct confrontation with Iran, with consequences that extend well beyond the immediate battlefield.

Every scenario is now on the table

With war beginning, the range of possible outcomes has widened rather than narrowed.