How the Iran war could redefine Iraq's fragile state

The accumulated weight of unresolved questions around the Iran war is making the world economy increasingly divided.

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and the U.S. Navy has now officially finalised a blockade of Iranian ports, ordering 13 vessels to turn around as Washington attempts to force Iran to agree to better terms.

And yet a ceasefire of sorts persists. Fragile, contested and increasingly strained by the gap between what each side has agreed to and what each side believes it has agreed to.

Nowhere is that gap clearer than on Lebanon. Israel and Lebanese representatives held talks in Washington this week, with Trump announcing a 10-day ceasefire.

But the underlying positions remain irreconcilable in the near term: Israel wants Hezbollah dismantled; Beirut wants Israel to leave.

The Houthis, meanwhile, continue to confound expectations.

Despite weeks of promises to assist Iran if the Gulf war dragged on, Yemen's Houthi movement has carried out only a few missile attacks on southern Israel and otherwise stayed on the sidelines.

Domestic governance pressures, the resource cost of their previous engagement with the U.S., a desire for a deal with Saudi Arabia, and the strategic logic of keeping Bab al-Mandab as a final card rather than playing it prematurely are all factors at play.

The closure of both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab simultaneously would cut off 25% of global energy traffic, which is why Iran and its proxies are holding it in reserve.

Global markets, in the face of all this, are surprisingly bullish and do not seem to be accurately pricing the risks associated to the ongoing conflict.

To make matters more surreal, Trump and Pope Leo XIV are in open dispute.

After Pope Leo criticised the administration's conduct of the Iran war, Trump and senior Republican figures responded by attacking him on matters of theology.

It is a signal of how isolated Washington's war posture has become, when the sitting U.S. president is in a public argument with the Pope about the morality of his foreign policy.

At GPD, we published two pieces this week that we think are essential reading for anyone trying to understand what's happening in the region.

One on Libya, which argues that the country's long-standing status quo is finally seeing its first potential shake-up in years, and one on China's strategic exposure to the current energy disruption.

And next week, we will be in the Spanish capital for the Madrid Energy Conference, where we will hear about how Latin America can play a strategic role in meeting Europe’s energy security needs at a time of global disruptions.

GPD readers can use code MEC26 for $150 off tickets:

Let's get into it.

Massad Boulos is creating the next Libyan reality

What happened: The diplomatic process pushed by the United States via Massad Boulos, which we have been tracking closely over the past several weeks, is actively reshaping the architecture of Libya's political settlement, determining which actors are legitimised, which are marginalised, and what the country's next institutional reality will look like.

Why it matters: Libya's diplomatic history is littered with international processes that failed to produce tangible outcomes. What distinguishes the current moment is the combination of a U.S. interlocutor with political proximity to the White House, a Libyan factional environment that is for the first time in years showing signs of flexibility, and an external pressure environment created by the Iran crisis that has concentrated minds in Tripoli, Benghazi and the major European capitals simultaneously. The technical talks between the Haftar and Dabaiba factions, which GPD reported last week, are one output of this process.

What this means: The actors who engage constructively with the Boulos process now are positioning themselves for influence in whatever institutional arrangement emerges. Those who stay on the sidelines or who attempt to spoil, risk finding themselves outside the architecture that is being built. For energy sector operators, infrastructure investors and governments with strategic exposure in Libya: the window for positioning is open, but it is not permanent.

Read the full exclusive:

The Boulos process is creating the next Libyan reality

Libya’s long-standing status quo is finally seeing its first potential shake-up in years, which could have major repercussions for the country’s future.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

The indirect war: chokepoint hegemony and China's energy dilemma

What happened: The second order effects of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict on China are becoming increasingly apparent. Not through direct military exposure, but through the strategic pressure that comes from dependence on energy chokepoints now effectively controlled or contested by U.S. naval power. With Hormuz closed and Bab al-Mandab held in reserve as a Houthi card, China's energy import architecture is under strain in ways that Beijing's long-term strategic planning may have not fully anticipated.

Why it matters: China is the world's largest crude importer. Its exposure to Hormuz is structural. The current crisis is functioning as a live stress test of Beijing's energy security assumptions, and the results are not yet clear. What the analysis shows is that the U.S., whether intentionally or as a byproduct of its Iran policy, has demonstrated a capacity to apply indirect pressure on Chinese energy flows without a direct confrontation. That is a significant geopolitical finding, and one with implications that extend well beyond the current conflict.

What this means: For those tracking U.S.-China competition, the Iran war has inadvertently clarified something important about the asymmetry of chokepoint leverage. China is acutely aware of this and has been investing in overland pipeline alternatives and port access across the Indian Ocean littoral for precisely this reason. But those alternatives are not yet sufficient to offset Hormuz exposure. The crisis is accelerating Chinese strategic thinking on energy independence in ways that will reshape infrastructure investment and diplomatic positioning across Central Asia, the Gulf and East Africa for years to come.

Read the full analysis:

Indirect warfare, chokepoint hegemony and China’s energy dilemma

With global energy demand rising and limitations in supply infrastructure becoming more apparent, China has been looking to reinforce itself in case of future crises, especially with the U.S.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

Why haven't the Houthis closed Bab al-Mandab?

What happened: Despite weeks of public commitments from Houthi leadership to assist Iran if the Gulf war continued, the movement has carried out less than half a dozen missile attacks and has otherwise remained on the sidelines. The Bab al-Mandab Strait, through which 15% of global shipping passes, remains open.

Why it matters: The restraint is a strategic posture, shaped by at least three distinct pressures.

1. First, the Houthis are struggling to govern north Yemen effectively. Deeper engagement in a regional conflict would force resources away from an already fragile domestic situation.
2. Second, the movement's previous engagement with the U.S. cost it resources that were not easily replaceable, and joining the Iran war more fully risks drawing sustained American targeting again.
3. Third and most significantly, the Houthis want a deal with Saudi Arabia. Since Riyadh took control of south Yemen, the Houthis see a greater chance of an agreement and have little incentive to antagonise the Saudis by escalating in a way that destabilises the wider Gulf.

What this means: The closure of Bab al-Mandab is Iran's last major escalation card, and Tehran does not want to play it unless necessary. The simultaneous closure of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab would cut off approximately 25% of global energy traffic, a move with consequences so severe that its value lies almost entirely in the threat rather than the execution. The Houthis understand this. If the ceasefire breaks down, the calculus changes and the likelihood of Houthi intervention increases materially. But for now, restraint is serving everyone's interests, including their own.

Background reading from the GPD Archive:

What comes after Yemen’s southern takeover?

The capture of southern Yemen by separatist forces has altered the dynamics of the country’s long-festering civil war. Rising tensions among both rivals and allies now threaten either a renewed outbreak of fighting or a continuation of prolonged stagnation.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

GPD at Madrid Energy Conference

As Europe looks to reduce exposure and rebuild supply chains, Latin America is moving back into focus as a strategic partner in energy and minerals.

The Madrid Energy Conference convenes policymakers, investors and industry leaders around this shift. With a clear emphasis on the Europe-Latin America corridor, it offers a timely lens into how energy security is being redefined.

The GPD Team is looking forward to being in Madrid to exchange perspectives with operators, policymakers and investors who are navigating the same questions we have been writing about.

GPD readers can use code MEC26 for $150 off tickets.

As always, thank you for reading and for your continued support.

Feel free to reply with feedback or suggestions — or, if you're in Madrid next week, to arrange a meeting.

See you next week,

Oliver Crowley
Co-Founder, The Geopolitical Desk

P.S. Please forward this to anyone who might find it useful. If you’re reading this second-hand, you can sign up for our free newsletter here.

Professionals across energy markets, diplomacy, risk advisory and investment use GPD Intelligence to track geopolitical developments before they move markets.

If you find this coverage valuable, you can unlock the full Intelligence briefings and scenario analysis.

This was a busy week for The Geopolitical Desk team and a pretty consequential one for the regions we cover.

I've spent the past few days in Washington at Semafor World Economy, in a room with CEOs, finance ministers, central bankers and geopolitical risk analysts all grappling with the same question: what does the global system look like on the other side of the Iran crisis?

The conversations were candid in a way that formal statements rarely are, and I came away with a clearer sense of where institutional thinking is landing on energy security, capital allocation and the longer-term map.

Meanwhile, the team published three exclusive articles, including the results of an investigation into Libya's energy sector.

The first exclusive broke the news that the Haftar and Dabaiba factions have agreed to enter technical talks on Libyan unification. This development would have seemed implausible even a few months ago, and carries significant implications for Libya's energy sector and for European strategic interests.

The second is a visual investigation into the war in Sudan: a conflict that has produced one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world, and which remains dramatically underreported.

And finally, we published a deep dive into Libya's energy sector that finds how BGN, the Swiss-based crude trader widely believed to have exited the market, never actually left.

The story of how it did so draws on sources across Libya's Ministry of Oil & Gas, National Oil Corporation, Attorney General's Office, and wider market participants and says something important about how Libya's energy sector actually works.

This is the kind of week GPD Intelligence exists for. If you're not yet a subscriber (or your organisation isn't on an Enterprise plan) now is a good time to change that.

Let's get into it.

Exclusive: Haftars and Dabaibas set for technical talks on unification

What happened: GPD exclusively reported that representatives of the Haftar and Dabaiba families, the two dominant power centres in Libya's east-west divide, are set to enter technical talks on unification. The talks represent the most substantive engagement between the two sides in years.

Why it matters: Libya's political division is not merely a governance problem. It is the structural condition that has blocked economic recovery, suppressed oil production capacity and made the country a persistent source of instability for its neighbours and for European migration and energy policy.

Any movement toward a unified institutional framework, however imperfect, changes the operating environment for every actor with exposure in Libya. This is also consistent with the renewed diplomatic momentum we reported last week around Massad Boulos, whose re-engagement appears to be producing tangible results.

What this means: Technical talks are not a political settlement, and the history of Libyan negotiations counsels caution. Talks have begun before and collapsed quickly. But the fact that both sides have agreed to engage on a technical basis, which is often where durable arrangements are actually built, below the level of political grandstanding, is a meaningful signal.

Read the full exclusive:

Haftars and Dabaibas set for technical talks on unification

Sources with knowledge of the situation have informed The Geopolitical Desk that the Dabaiba and Haftar families have agreed to begin technical talks this week in Tunis.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

A visual investigation into one of the world's most ignored wars

What happened: GPD published a visual investigation into the war in Sudan, mapping the scale of the conflict and the shifting fault lines that have received a fraction of the international attention directed at other theatres.

Why it matters: Sudan's war has displaced more people than any conflict on earth. It has produced mass atrocity, famine and the systematic destruction of civilian infrastructure. The reasons it remain underreported are structural, but the absence of coverage does not diminish the scale.

What this means: The investigation is deliberately visual because the numbers alone have not been sufficient to hold attention. We wanted to produce something that makes the reality of this conflict harder to look away from. Read it, share it, and if you work in a field where Sudan's trajectory is material to your decisions, this piece is a great starting point.

Read the full investigation:

A visual investigation of the war in Sudan

Entering into its third year, Sudan’s civil war continues to drag on with no clear end in sight. This GDP exclusive provides maps detailing the progress of the Sudan war so far and changes in territorial control.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

How BGN rewired its operations in Libya

What happened: A GPD investigation drawing on sources across Libya's Ministry of Oil and Gas, former NOC officials, individuals familiar with inquiries at the Attorney General's Office, and market participants found that BGN, the Swiss-based crude trader widely believed to have exited Libya's market, did not leave.

Why it matters: The narrative that Libya's oil sector was finally opening up to competitive, transparent trading was, on the evidence gathered by GPD, premature. If the accounts provided by sources prove accurate, BGN's reported re-entry through proxy structures would demonstrate that the networks shaping Libya's energy economy remain capable of absorbing political pressure and adapting to it.

What this means: This is not, ultimately, a story about one company. It is a story about a system in which access is negotiated through relationships rather than regulation, and in which the scale of potential value diversion from a state whose population has long borne the costs of that dysfunction is likely far greater than what has yet been documented.

For operators, investors and policymakers with exposure in Libya: the technical talks between the Haftar and Dabaiba factions represent a genuine opportunity. But political process and commercial reality are not the same thing. Understanding who actually controls access to Libya's crude, and through what channels, remains as consequential as it has ever been.

Read the full exclusive:

The return of Libya’s most controversial oil trader

For months, it seemed like BGN had been pushed out of Libya. However, according to multiple industry sources, the Swiss-based crude trader is still operating through a network of aligned entities designed to reduce visibility.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

GPD at Semafor World Economy

What happened: GPD spent four days at Semafor World Economy in Washington this week, in conversation with and listening to some of the most influential figures shaping the global economic and energy landscape — among them TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol, and Dubai Economic Development Corporation CEO Hadi Badri. The throughline across sessions was consistent: the Iran crisis has not just disrupted global energy markets, it has structurally altered them in ways that will outlast any ceasefire.

Why it matters: The consensus in the room, if it can be called that, was that the world is not returning to the pre-crisis baseline. Pouyanné was direct about the precedent: a closed Strait of Hormuz creates a template that other actors in other chokepoints will study and potentially replicate. Birol's concern was that the cost of this crisis is not being borne by major economies but by net energy importers in the developing world, in a pattern that echoes the 1970s debt spirals. And Badri's underlined the UAE's resilience in spite of the war, claiming that consumer spending has recovered to just shy of pre-crisis levels and arguing that capital is not fleeing the region, it is repositioning within it.

What this means: Three things emerged from Washington that, for me, are worth thinking about. First, energy security and trust in geopolitical systems has become a distinct investment criterion, sitting alongside price and technology in a way it never did before.

Second, the gas industry faces a credibility problem it has not yet fully reckoned with: two major gas crises in four years is beginning to deter the long-term infrastructure commitments that emerging economies need to make, which presents a significant opportunity for U.S., Canadian and Australian exporters and a significant challenge for everyone else.

Third, the psychological shift caused by the Iran war may matter as much as the operational reality, if not more. The crisis has compressed timelines on supply chain diversification, economic localisation and energy system redesign that were already underway. The question is no longer whether those shifts happen, but how fast and who is positioned to benefit.

PARTNER CONTENT

As Europe looks to reduce exposure and rebuild supply chains, Latin America is moving back into focus. Not as a peripheral market, but as a strategic partner in energy and minerals.

The Madrid Energy Conference convenes policymakers, investors and industry leaders around this shift. With a clear emphasis on the Europe–Latin America corridor, it offers a timely lens into how energy security is being redefined.

GPD readers can use code MEC26 for $150 off tickets

Register Now

As always, thank you for reading and for your continued support.

Feel free to reply with feedback or suggestions — or, if you're in DC next week, to arrange a meeting.

See you next week,

Oliver Crowley
Co-Founder, The Geopolitical Desk

P.S. Please forward this to anyone who might find it useful. If you’re reading this second-hand, you can sign up for our free newsletter here.

Professionals across energy markets, diplomacy, risk advisory and investment use GPD Intelligence to track geopolitical developments before they move markets.

If you find this coverage valuable, you can unlock the full Intelligence briefings and scenario analysis.

Hours before President Trump's own deadline to strike Iranian power plants and bridges last Tuesday, the U.S. President announced that a two-week ceasefire had been agreed between the United States and Iran.

While the announcement was received with relief in many quarters, the main question we have been receiving from clients and subscribers is whether it amounts to anything durable.

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, oil prices remain high, and Iran has already rejected a U.S. proposal for a 45-day extension.

Meanwhile, Israel continues to strike Lebanon — and the three sides cannot agree on whether Lebanon was ever included in the ceasefire to begin with (Iran says it was, the U.S. and Israel say it wasn't).

The week that preceded the ceasefire announcement was one of the most turbulent of the conflict.

Trump, for his part, threatened further strikes in a profanity-laden post on Truth Social, calling Iranians "crazy bastards" and promising that Tuesday would be "Power Plant Day and Bridge Day." He also called Iranians "animals" at a slightly surreal Easter celebration at the White House.

These observations raise two important questions that will determine the fate of the conflict in the weeks and months to come:

1. First, has the U.S. crossed a threshold from being the world's policeman to becoming a rogue state?
2. And second, has Iran, by surviving the campaign with its regional position arguably intact, emerged from this conflict in a stronger strategic posture than when it began?

Despite President Trump's alarming disregard for international law in his threats to bomb Iran back to the “Stone Ages” and the Iranian regime's continued survival, neither question has a clean answer yet.

But both will define the next phase of this conflict, ceasefire or not.

Elsewhere, we have a new exclusive that suggests Massad Boulos, Trump's Senior Advisor on Arab and Middle Eastern Affairs, appears poised to achieve a breakthrough on negotiations around Libya's unified budget next week, and has reinvigorated talks for a possible political unity deal.

I'll be in Washington next week for Semafor World Economy. More on that below.

Let's get into it.

A U.S.-Iran ceasefire arrives, but uncertainty remains

What happened: Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran after intensifying rhetoric that suggested the U.S. President was prepared to commit war crimes in Iran. The ceasefire is holding, but Iran has since rejected a U.S. proposal for a 45-day extension. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

Why it matters: The ceasefire is real in the narrow sense that large-scale direct U.S.-Iran exchanges have paused. But the conditions that made the conflict possible, and that could reignite it, remain entirely in place. Iran has not reopened the Strait. Israel has not halted operations. And the diplomatic architecture that would be required to convert a two-week pause into a durable settlement does not currently exist.

What this means: Two strategic questions now dominate the post-ceasefire landscape. First: has Iran's regional position been strengthened by surviving the campaign? Tehran entered this conflict as a state under maximum pressure. It absorbed significant strikes, but it also demonstrated missile capability, held the Strait closed, and extracted concessions without capitulating. That is not nothing. Second: has the U.S. become a rogue state? The targeting of civilian infrastructure, the belligerent rhetoric from the White House, and the conduct of the campaign have been noted in capitals from Brussels to Beijing.

Go deeper: Our Iran Desk has been providing Enterprise subscribers with in-depth reporting and scenario analysis on the conflict. We are preparing a new special report outlining our assessment of what comes next.

IRAN DESK ◉ Political and strategic risk analysis on Iran

Exclusive briefings, source-based analysis, scenario assessments and market implications for professionals in energy, finance, diplomacy and risk who need to understand how developments in Iran affect global markets.

The Geopolitical DeskOliver Crowley

Exclusive: Boulos catches a second wind in Libya negotiations

What happened: Massad Boulos — whose grip on the North Africa portfolio had appeared to be loosening — has re-emerged with renewed traction in Libya's diplomatic track, in what represents a notable reversal from the trajectory we reported several weeks ago.

Why it matters: With everything that's happening in the world, from Iran to Ukraine, U.S. President Donald Trump needs a foreign policy win. Next week could potentially signal the first step towards that success. A more engaged Boulos, with a clearer mandate, changes the calculus for Libyan factions and for the European governments that remain deeply invested in Libyan stability.

What this means: The window for a meaningful diplomatic shift in Libya is narrow and historically prone to closing without warning. Boulos catching a second wind is a positive signal for those hoping for U.S. re-engagement, but the structural obstacles that have blocked progress to date have not disappeared.

Enterprise and Intelligence subscribers can read the full exclusive below:

Boulos catches second wind in Libya negotiations

The Senior Advisor is set for a budget breakthrough next week, and has reinvigorated talks for a possible political unity deal.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

Two more countries move away from democratic governance

What happened: In Myanmar, General Min Aung Hlaing was formally appointed President by his proxy political party, formalising a status quo that has existed since he overthrew the elected government in 2021. In Burkina Faso, junta leader General Ibrahim Traoré — who himself took power in a 2022 coup — told citizens the country should "forget about the question of democracy," pushing previously promised elections back to 2029 at the earliest.

Why it matters: These are part of a broader pattern of military-led governments entrenching themselves while the international mechanisms designed to hold them accountable operate at reduced capacity. The U.S., historically the most assertive external enforcer of democratic norms, is currently occupied elsewhere and operating under an administration with limited appetite for that role.

What this means: For investors and risk analysts with exposure in West Africa or Southeast Asia: the governance risk horizon is lengthening. In Burkina Faso specifically, the delay of elections to 2029 extends the period of policy unpredictability and limits the leverage available to development institutions and commercial partners seeking contractual certainty.

GPD at Semafor World Economy

Next week, I'll be in Washington as part of the inaugural cohort of Principals at Semafor World Economy. The lineup brings together policymakers, investors and business leaders at a moment when geopolitics is moving markets in real time — which is, of course, exactly what GPD exists to help readers navigate.

I'll be in DC for a handful of days and am setting aside time for a small number of meetings, particularly with readers who are working on North Africa, West Asia or energy sector exposure, where we've been covering developments at a granular level.

If you're based in DC or will be there next week and want to connect, feel free to reply directly to this email. I'd welcome the conversation.

Learn more about Semafor World Economy:

Semafor World Economy

Convening from April 13-17 in Washington, DC, Semafor World Economy 2026 is dedicated to advancing dialogues that catalyze global growth.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

As always, thank you for reading and for your continued support.

Feel free to reply with feedback or suggestions — or, if you're in DC next week, to arrange a meeting.

See you next week,

Oliver Crowley
Co-Founder, The Geopolitical Desk

P.S. Please forward this to anyone who might find it useful. If you’re reading this second-hand, you can sign up for our free newsletter here.

Professionals across energy markets, diplomacy, risk advisory and investment use GPD Intelligence to track geopolitical developments before they move markets.

If you find this coverage valuable, you can unlock the full Intelligence briefings and scenario analysis.

Trump is publicly asserting that a deal with Iran is close, while Iranian officials say they have only received written notes and accuse Washington of using the war narrative to manipulate oil markets.

The gap between the two positions is not merely rhetorical, but reflects a fundamental divergence in how each side is managing domestic audiences, and what they each stand to gain from ambiguity.

That ambiguity has a price. Average U.S. gas prices hit $3.98 this week — the highest since 2022 — driven directly by the conflict.

The economic pressure is beginning to compound political pressure on the Trump administration, even as Washington projects confidence in its negotiating position.

On the energy front, Ukraine continued its campaign against Russian export infrastructure, with drone strikes heavily damaging Russia's largest oil export facility and a refinery in Ufa.

These strikes are part of a deliberate Ukrainian effort to stifle Russian revenues at a moment when Moscow is seeking to benefit from elevated oil prices caused by the Iran disruption.

Separately, Ukrainian soldiers have reportedly established a presence in western Libya. Although unconfirmed, Ukraine has allegedly been targeting Russian assets in the southern Mediterranean, with some reports even suggesting they were behind the sinking of the Russian LNG tanker Arctic Metagaz.

As we covered in our latest Libya Energy Insights report, although the expansion of the “energy wars” to North Africa remains elusive, the longstanding influence of Russian PMCs in eastern Libya in addition to the growing presence of Ukrainian military advisors in western Libya point to the possibility of geopolitically-driven sabotage operations against energy facilities in the region.

Elsewhere, the U.S. Senate confirmed Markwayne Mullin as the new DHS head after Kristi Noem was fired, in a 54–45 vote that exposed the narrowing margins of Trump's domestic coalition.

In the UK, a political controversy is deepening around the McSweeny phone case, raising questions about transparency inside the Labour government at a time when public trust in political institutions is already strained.

And this week at GPD, we sat down with Mohammed Soliman, one of the most consequential strategic thinkers working on West Asia today, for a conversation that reframes how the entire region should be understood in the current moment.

Let's get into it.

Trump says a deal is close. Iran says not quite

What happened: President Trump has continued to assert publicly that the U.S. and Iran are close to a diplomatic agreement. Iran's parliament speaker contradicted this directly, stating that Tehran has only received written communications — not entered negotiations — and accused Trump of using the conflict narrative to drive up oil prices.

Why it matters: This reflects an active gap in how each party is using the appearance of diplomacy as a tool to further their wartime objectives. Both are trying to sway markets and domestic audiences, particularly in the United States. For markets, the ambiguity itself is a variable: any sudden convergence or breakdown could move energy prices sharply.

What this means: The risk is that public expectations get ahead of actual diplomatic progress, or that one side is managing a de-escalation narrative that the other has not agreed to. Either scenario creates volatility. The Iran parliament speaker's suggestion that this is market manipulation signals Tehran is not prepared to play along with Trump's timeline.

Go deeper: A special report from our Iran Desk argued that the Iran conflict has shifted from an episodic risk to a structural baseline and that markets must now price instability continuously, not periodically. It outlined three major scenarios for the conflict, one of which appears to be unfolding.

Iran war: scenarios, conflict pathways and market implications

This report provides scenario mapping of the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran war, analysing potential regional escalation pathways, Strait of Hormuz disruption risk and the likelihood of further attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

Ukraine strikes at the heart of Russia's oil export capacity

What happened: Ukrainian drones heavily damaged the Primorsk, Russia's largest export terminal, and an oil refinery in Ufa. The strikes are part of a sustained campaign to degrade Russia's ability to capitalise on elevated global oil prices during the Iran war.

Why it matters: With oil prices elevated by the U.S.-Iran conflict, Russia stands to benefit significantly from export revenues. Ukraine is attempting to eliminate that windfall before it can be converted into war funding. Primorsk handles a substantial portion of Russia's crude exports to global buyers, making this one of the most strategically significant infrastructure strikes of the war.

What this means: Market observers should note that simultaneous supply-side pressure from both the Iran war and the Ukraine campaign creates a compounding dynamic in global oil markets. The Ufa refinery strike also has domestic implications inside Russia as it affects fuel supply chains in a major industrial region, adding internal economic pressure to an already strained wartime economy.

Go deeper: This week, an attack on the Russian LNG tanker Arctic Metagas in the central Mediterranean and its subsequent drift toward Libya’s coastline has caused significant concern, both for its potential environmental impact and for its geopolitical implications.

Gas prices hit a three-year high as the Iran war squeezes the U.S. economy

What happened: Average U.S. gas prices reached $3.98 this week — the highest level since 2022 — driven primarily by the ongoing conflict with Iran and its impact on regional energy flows.

Why it matters: The Iran war is no longer an abstraction for American consumers. At $3.98, pump prices are a live political issue, and one that will only intensify if the conflict drags on or escalates further. This creates a domestic pressure dynamic that complicates Trump's war posture.

What this means: The political arithmetic is shifting. An administration that entered the conflict with already strained public support may find its room to manoeuvre narrowing as economic costs accumulate. The longer the conflict continues without resolution, the more it erodes the economic case for sustained military engagement.

"The Middle East as we knew it is over"

What happened: GPD sat down with Mohammed Soliman — the director of the Strategic Technologies and Cyber Security Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, and one of the most closely read strategic analysts on the region — for a wide-ranging conversation on his new book West Asia, the region's realignment, the role of AI infrastructure, and what the current moment means for the world.

Why it matters: Soliman's framework doesn't treat the current upheaval as a crisis, but as a structural transition. The end of a post-Cold War regional order and the emergence of something qualitatively different, shaped by technology, sovereignty anxieties and the collapse of old alignments. That's a more consequential claim than most analysts are willing to make, and it has significant implications for how institutions, investors and policymakers should be positioning.

What this means: The interview covers AI infrastructure competition, the Gulf's evolving strategic calculus, and why the realist framework is back as the dominant lens for understanding what's happening.

Read the full interview:

The realist who saw the end of the Middle East coming

Mohammed Soliman predicted the Middle East’s transformation before the Iran war made it impossible to ignore. In this interview, the engineer-turned-strategist explains why the region is now “West Asia” and why that distinction matters for Europe, India and the future of AI infrastructure.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

Special Report: Libya Energy Insights - March 2026

This week our Libya Desk published the latest Libya Energy Insights report, analysing production dynamics, infrastructure risk and the commercial environment for operators and investors in Libya's energy sector.

The big story that most are watching closely involves the private Libyan oil company Arkenu.

Explore the report:

Libya Energy Insights (Mar 2026)

This report provides analysis and insights into Libya’s energy sector for the month of March, 2026. A downloadable PDF version of the report is available at the end of the page.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

The full story behind Arkenu’s “termination”

On the surface level, the cancellation of Arkenu’s contracts seems monumental. Reality is much more complex.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

As always, thank you for reading and for your continued support.

Feel free to reply with feedback or suggestions.

See you next week,

Oliver Crowley
Co-Founder, The Geopolitical Desk

P.S. Please forward this to anyone who might find it useful. If you’re reading this second-hand, you can sign up for our free newsletter here.

Professionals across energy markets, diplomacy, risk advisory and investment use GPD Intelligence to track geopolitical developments before they move markets.

If you find this coverage valuable, you can unlock the full Intelligence briefings and scenario analysis.

This week's headlines have been dominated by one question: are the U.S. and Iran close to a deal to end the war?

U.S. President Donald Trump has continued to say they are very close to a deal, while Iran has been clear that there have been no talks.

Crude markets have responded in kind, cooling whenever Trump gives assurances that the war will soon be over, and then immediately rising again when Iran denies the rumours. 

While the two sides might be engaged in talks, with Pakistan stating that it could host such an event, that does not mean either side is close to a deal.

The Iranian Speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, has even accused Trump of using his statements to manipulate oil markets in an effort to keep oil costs low and minimise domestic frustration in the U.S.

This incident has highlighted the fact that the idea of “the truth” has increasingly broken down on the international stage. 

There was once a general expectation that when a government like that of the United States announced something, it was credible.

It had long been assumed that the architect of the “rules based order” followed those rules, but Trump’s America has refused to uphold those norms. 

This constant uncertainty has had a real material impact, causing fluctuations in global oil markets that affect the lives of millions of people.

This demonstrates the increasing importance of informational clarity in the modern age, and how traditional sources of information may no longer be as reliable as they once were.

At The Geopolitical Desk, we continue to cut through the noise and the information war that dominates headlines, and have expanded our Iran coverage to better prepare readers for the continued turbulence arising from this conflict.

In a recent special report, we break down the likely risk pathways regarding the trajectory of the war and how it will impact oil markets in the short to long term.

Link to the full report here:

Iran war: scenarios, conflict pathways and market implications

This report provides scenario mapping of the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran war, analysing potential regional escalation pathways, Strait of Hormuz disruption risk and the likelihood of further attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure.

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What will Trump do next?

While the battle over narratives surrounding negotiations continues, there are growing reports in U.S. media that a possible invasion of Iran's Kharg Island may be forthcoming.

Trump’s continued pursuit of the war has confused many international observers.

The president has a proven track record in relation to Iran, where he simultaneously pursues negotiation while preparing for escalation.

Despite his often stated opposition to regime change wars, Trump has historically been more hawkish on Iran.

Our recent article explains the domestic factors in the U.S. that helped lead to the war and examines Trump’s longstanding opposition to the Islamic Republic.

Our full analysis here:

The neocons’ long-awaited war with Iran is not what they expected

Decades of effort went into building the case for a U.S. war with Iran, and now it has finally arrived. But for Washington’s think tanks and policy circles, it is not what they had in mind.

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Taking advantage of the moment

The wars in Ukraine and Iran have revealed that the world's energy supplies remain reliant on a limited number of actors and geographies. 

Demand for energy continues to grow rapidly, forcing investors to seek new areas to expand supply.

Algeria, even before the war in Ukraine, had begun taking steps to ease access for foreign investors into its energy market. 

New regulatory frameworks introduced by the Algerian government could not have come at a better time, as demonstrated by the success of the Algeria Bid Round 2024.

Now Algeria is preparing to launch Bid Round 2026, and international attention is increasingly turning towards the country as a source that can help maintain supply stability and diversify global production.

Find our full analysis here:

Algeria’s new bidding round comes at a critical time

Algiers is seeking to launch another bidding round for oil and gas exploration rights as the country aims to increase output in a world hungry for energy.

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The world in moving crosshairs

The Iran war has, somewhat justifiably, dominated headlines this week.

While it is a critical story that affects others around the world, there are additional developments that should also be monitored.

Ukraine targets Russian fuel infrastructure

What happened: Ukrainian drones heavily damaged the Primorsk export terminal, Russia’s largest, as well as an oil refinery in Ufa, halting 40% of Russia’s fuel export capacity.

Why it matters: Rising gas prices have been a boon for Russia, as oil is one of the state’s main sources of income and the government has long been affected by western sanctions. Ukraine’s goal is to weaken Russia’s ability to sell its oil.

Why you should monitor it: The attacks are strategically logical for Ukraine, as they disrupt Russian revenue streams and damage infrastructure that supports its military. However, with U.S. President Donald Trump seeking to keep prices low, continued Ukrainian action could draw his ire.

Trump appoints new head of DHS

What happened: Former Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin was confirmed in a 54–45 Senate vote as the new head of the Department of Homeland Security.

Why it matters: Mullin’s confirmation follows Trump’s dismissal of former Secretary Kristi Noem after she implicated him in a political scandal involving the misuse of public funds. The DHS is one of Trump’s more favoured departments, and he has used it to advance his domestic agenda.

Why you should monitor it: The DHS is facing increasing scrutiny and declining public support in the United States due to its aggressive immigration enforcement tactics.

With ICE, an agency within DHS, continuing its immigration raids across the country, the department is likely to encounter sustained resistance from the Democratic Party as debates over its budget continue in Congress. Mullins will be forced to deal with increasing domestic unpopularity while also trying to meet Trump’s demands.

Nepal installs new PM

What happened: Former rapper Balendra Shah has been sworn in as Nepal’s Prime Minister after his party secured a major victory in elections earlier this month.

Why it matters: Shah is Nepal’s youngest prime minister in decades, and his success followed the country’s Gen Z protests last year. Frustration over unemployment and government corruption led to the collapse of the previous government and triggered early elections.

Why you should monitor it: Shah will face significant expectations to address the concerns of younger voters. Reorienting Nepal’s economy and tackling entrenched corruption will be challenging. His success may also serve as a broader indicator of the effectiveness of emerging Gen Z driven political movements.

Previous coverage on this topic here:

Gen Z’s struggle against the old order in Nepal

With the fall of the government, Nepal finds itself at an important crossroads, with a young generation hungry for change.

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As always, thank you for reading and for your continued support.

Feel free to reply with feedback or suggestions.

See you next week,

Will Mosko

Program Manager, The Geopolitical Desk