The return and rise of Russia’s “Africa Corps”

As we are approaching August the summer is well to halfway done, as Europe moves into a slower vacation mode. However, across the world tensions are boiling over. 

The U.S. and Iran continue to fight, pointing to the return of a broader war, even as regional countries ramp up efforts to return to a ceasefire.

Libya and Tunisia continue to suffer under brutal heat waves, with both country’s electrical grids, and their populations, reaching their breaking points.

In Nicaragua, president Daniel Ortega surprised many by announcing that going forward the country would not be organising any more elections.

A leak in exam papers in India have led to large scale protests against the Modi government, with Indian police responding with intense violence.

Now,

Lets get into it

U.S. growing reliance on Israel points to broader war

What happened: The U.S. and Iran have exchanged fire consistently for the past two weeks, with the civilian infrastructure threshold increasingly breached and U.S. strikes showing greater geographic spread within Iran. Tehran, though, has degraded U.S. capacity to launch air attacks from bases in Arab countries, Jordan chief among them, forcing a withdrawal of American assets into Israel, where forces continue to accumulate in anticipation of Trump's threatened wide-scale strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure.

Why it matters: Netanyahu arrives in Washington next week for his seventh visit of Trump's second term, and his presence is unlikely to nudge Trump toward restraint. Israel remains a likely participant if the U.S. launches widespread strikes on Iran. A newer factor complicates the picture further: the Houthis, who have begun targeting Saudi Arabia unilaterally, threatening to choke off its Red Sea export route. That gives Tehran a wild card should escalation continue, one already tested by Houthi strikes on Aramco's Jizan refinery and the oil barrel nearing $100.

What it means: The war is once more at an inflection point, with escalation as plausible an outcome as restraint. Diplomatic efforts have intensified in parallel, with Oman, Qatar, Pakistan, Egypt and even Iraq all engaged. Tehran, though, has shown little interest in recent short-term ceasefire proposals, determined to keep fighting unless Washington chooses to de-escalate unilaterally.

Should Oman and Qatar succeed in ensuring the Strait of Hormuz is no longer contested space, as GPD has argued, much of the underlying issue would dissolve with it. You can read the full article below:

Joint talks on Hormuz expose diverging interests between Oman and Iran

Often overlooked, Oman also has a voice in how traffic flows through the Strait, and both Oman and Iran will have to reconcile their opposing visions for the future of Hormuz.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

Risk metre (High): The diplomatic track has already been largely expended, and neither side currently treats de-escalation as a priority. Instead, both are seeking the point that forces the other to backtrack. As such, the region may not yet have seen the worst of this conflict.

Heatwaves and power outages plague North Africa

What happened: Power outages have hit much of North Africa, but Tunisia and Libya have been the hardest hit as ageing grids, years of underinvestment and mismanagement buckle under record demand. In Tunisia, at least five people reportedly died after electricity cuts disabled home oxygen equipment, while widespread power and water outages have fuelled protests. In Libya, some cities have endured blackouts lasting up to three days, with temperatures nearing 50°C.

Why it matters: The crisis comes as both countries are already grappling with prolonged political and economic instability. Basic services are failing just as temperatures peak, pushing public frustration to breaking point. Protests have already erupted across Tunisia and in Tripoli, with no clear end to the outages.

What it means: The protests are likely to persist and grow, placing both the Tunisian government and the Tripoli authorities under increasing pressure. Infrastructure failures are rapidly becoming a wider political challenge.

Risk metre (High): We expect protests to become more frequent and widespread across Tunisia and Tripoli in the coming days, making electricity shortages one of the region’s most significant social flashpoints this summer.

Daniel Ortega announces no more elections in Nicaragua

What happened: President Daniel Ortega announced that Nicaragua will no longer hold general elections, canceling the vote previously set for November 2027. Speaking at the Sandinista’s ‘Revolution Day’ anniversary rally, Ortega declared the move would build a "wall" to keep opposition forces from seizing power. Nicaragua’s Sandinista-controlled parliament quickly began moving to enact the directive into law.

Why it matters: The announcement formally confirms the death of Nicaragua’s electoral process, removing any remaining pretense of democratic governance. It follows years of intense crackdowns in which Ortega and his wife, Co-President Rosario Murillo, jailed or exiled top political rivals, shut down thousands of civic organizations, stripped opponents of citizenship, and silenced independent media. International leaders and the UN condemned the move, viewing it as the final seal on a full-fledged family dictatorship.

What it means: By proclaiming his authoritarian plans so openly, Ortega is taking a major risk. Under the Trump administration the US has been increasingly aggressive towards “Bolivarian” regimes such as Venezuela and Cuba. Nicaragua has so far stayed off the radar of the Trump admin, but this move could make it become a target for future policies.

Cockroach Protests demonstrate rare anger against Modi

What happened: India witnessed its largest youth-led protests in years following the cancellation of the NEET medical entrance examination over a paper leak. The Cockroach Janta Party (CJP), which began as a satirical online movement protesting broader government issues, adopted the NEET crisis as its central cause and rapidly became the protests' organising force. The movement gained further momentum after a veteran activist joined through a prolonged hunger strike, culminating in nationwide demonstrations and a march towards Parliament.

Why it matters: What began as student anger over examination integrity evolved into a broader debate over institutional credibility and political accountability. The CJP demonstrated how a satirical online movement could rapidly transform into an effective platform for offline political mobilisation. The movement remained overwhelmingly student-led, with opposition parties joining only after it had acquired significant public momentum.

What it means: The protests represent the most significant youth mobilisation against the Modi government in years but are unlikely, in their current form, to pose a sustained political challenge. Their demands remain relatively narrow and politically attainable, and recent government concessions suggest an effort to defuse the crisis before it broadens. Unless the movement expands beyond education and accountability into wider socio-economic grievances, its intensity is likely to diminish. Nevertheless, it has demonstrated the capacity of digitally organised, youth-led activism to compel government engagement, potentially providing a template for future issue-based mobilisations in India.

Risk Metre (Medium to Low): The protest movement will likely begin to gradually decline in intensity following the government's recent concessions and proposed reforms. Especially as one of the protests' main demands, the resignation of the Education Minister, was recently achieved.However, a renewed wave of protests building on the momentum generated by this movement cannot be ruled out, particularly if promised measures fail to satisfy protesters or implementation is perceived as inadequate.

Exclusive report: Analysing Iraq’s anti-corruption drive

Iraq shocked much of the world when it carried out surprise early morning arrests of political and energy officials across the country. Misinformation and rumours quickly spread following the arrests, with some Western observers claiming they were intended to target Iranian-aligned factions. In this new report, we investigate these claims and assess whether the arrests are merely for show or indicate a genuine opportunity for deeper reform.

Iraq’s anti-corruption drive: reckoning or cosmetic fix?

The high-profile arrests of Iraqi political and energy officials drew international attention and fuelled claims that Baghad was targeting Iranian influence. However, the situation is more nuanced than it appears, and reveals Iraq’s continuing political complexity.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

Libya gets its first domestic credit rating agency

Libya is increasingly becoming a destination for international investment, but there has been limited international understanding of the effectiveness of its domestic financial system. The creation of Libya’s first domestic credit rating agency is likely to encourage greater investment and provide more options for domestic financing.

Libya gets its first domestic credit rating agency

SANAD’s operation marks a milestone in the country’s efforts to improve transparency, strengthen financial governance, and attract international capital.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

Eastern Libya expands its humanitarian actions

Libyan National Army (LNA) commander Saddam Haftar established his own humanitarian organisation, the Khalifa International Foundation, at the beginning of the year. Since then, it has significantly expanded its operations and is now looking to extend its activities across Libya and the wider region.

The expansion of the Khalifa Foundation

Looking to address a gap in Libya’s south, the Foundation is continuing to grow its capabilities.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

As always, thank you for reading and for your continued support.

Feel free to reply with feedback or suggestions.

See you next week,

The Geopolitical Desk team

P.S. Please forward this to anyone who might find it useful. If you’re reading this second-hand, you can sign up for our free newsletter here.

Professionals across energy markets, diplomacy, risk advisory and investment use GPD Intelligence to track geopolitical developments before they move markets.

If you find this coverage valuable, you can unlock the full Intelligence briefings and scenario analysis.

We’ve reached the end of the World Cup, and what a tournament it has been! When teams from around the world come together politics rarely stays home, and this time is no different.

A hotly contested semifinal between England and Argentina became the main stage of the return of a centuries-old dispute surrounding the Falkland Islands.

Outside of the World Cup, in Ukraine, a major controversy is unraveling as president Zelensky has fired his popular Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov.

While fighting between the U.S. and Iran has once again come into force, increasing the risk of further escalation.

Lastly, The Geopolitical Desk is active on both X and Instagram, where we post our new articles as soon as they are published, provide exclusive insights, and deliver custom content. Hope to see you all over there!

Now,

Lets get into it

The U.S. and Iran trade blows around the Gulf

What happened: The U.S. has struck southern Iran almost nightly, targeting launch capabilities, logistics nodes and military infrastructure. Civilian locations have also been repeatedly hit, i.e bridges, fishing piers, energy sites including the perimeter of Bushehr's NPP. Iran has cut Gulf maritime traffic to near zero, retaliated against U.S. regional bases, and gradually widened its strikes into Gulf economic infrastructure - tankers, desalination plants, oil facility - as U.S. strikes intensify.

Why it matters: Neither side has abandoned the MoU outright, but the diplomatic track is fatigued and largely inactive, with little effort to bring the two belligerents back to talks. GCC states are increasingly drawn into the hostilities behind the scenes. The guardrails that previously capped escalation between Iran and the U.S. are no longer holding, and risk levels are approaching those seen in early April.

What it means: Israel is holding back because the current target set doesn't justify the risk. The U.S. sees it differently, maximising its degradation campaign on the bet that tactical wins will eventually break Tehran's power projection in the Gulf, a course that risks eroding Tehran's strategic restraint and drawing more economic targets into the crosshairs.

Risk metre (High): Escalation risk rests primarily with the U.S. Wider geographic strikes on Iran or a heavy shift toward Iranian economic targets could push the conflict to a new threshold. Gulf energy targets are once more exposed, with Tehran already signalling the Red Sea as its next likely maritime chokepoint.

President Zelensky fires Ukraine’s popular Minister of Defense.

What happened: On July 16, 2026, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov after just six months in office. The firing stemmed from severe tension between Fedorov—a tech-minded reformer—and General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief. Fedorov had implemented strict anti-corruption audits and digital open-tender systems that directly clashed with the traditional military establishment.

Why it matters: Fedorov was highly popular among the public and Western allies for modernizing Ukraine's drone and cyber warfare. His removal triggered rare wartime protests across multiple Ukrainian cities, with citizens and civil society decrying the move as a blow to transparency.

What it means: By backing General Syrskyi over Fedorov, Zelenskyy prioritizes political alignment over bureaucratic reform. Critics warn the decision could slow defense modernization, complicate Western drone production agreements, and damage public trust in the administration. People also fear that replacing the Minister of Defense, at this key moment, jeopardizes the advantage which Ukraine has created on the battlefield

Las Malvinas son Argentina's banner at World Cup sparks diplomatic controversy

What happened: Following Argentina's 2-1 World Cup semi-final victory over England in Atlanta, several Argentine players displayed a fan banner on the pitch reading "Las Malvinas son Argentinas". This direct claim to the British-governed Falkland Islands prompted immediate, formal condemnation from Downing Street and the Falkland Islands Government, alongside demands for a thorough FIFA investigation. In the days before the match Argentina’s Foreign Minister had already made remarks which offended the Falklanders, describing them as an “artificial population”.

Why it matters: The display of the banner and the controversy around it have pushed this centuries old dispute back to the main stage. Rather than deescalating tensions, Argentina's Foreign Ministry immediately backed the players with a formal communique, using the global tournament's spotlight to forcefully assert its sovereign claims to a massive international audience.

What it means: The incident underscores how the dispute around the Falklands remains an active diplomatic wound, easily aggravated by symbolic theater. Coming directly on the heels of recent bilateral friction—specifically a formal Argentine protest over unnotified British warship movements in the South Atlantic—the match has hardened state rhetoric on both sides.

Exclusive Report: NOC Reshuffle Agreement reached

Previously reported by Libya Desk Consulting, Libya’s eastern and western factions had agreed to replace the executive board of the National Oil Corporation and most of its subsidiaries. In this exclusive report from GPD, we learn that the agreement has since been expanded, with both factions establishing a proposed timeline. Subscribers can read the details here:

Agreement reached to reshuffle Libya’s NOC

Libya’s oil sector may soon undergo its most significant leadership reshuffle in years.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

Jihadist pressure continues on Bamako

This week, we take a deeper dive into Mali, where government forces were able to just barely beat back a jihadist advance. Bamako and their Russian allies are continuing to try and hold on, but northern jihadist forces and their Tuareg allies are slowly becoming more bold in their attacks.

Mali’s slow crumbling under jihadist attacks

For the second time this year, the Malian military faced a major assault by a coalition of Tuareg separatists and al-Qaeda jihadist forces in the vast desert expanses of the north. Is Mali on track to become the first Sahel state to fall to resurgent jihadism?

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

The West begins to eye new weapon systems

This latest article explored the new trend in western weapons procurement: cheap combat systems often made by tech start-ups. The effectiveness of Ukrainian and Iranian drones in fighting their much larger opponents has interested western capitals to look beyond their traditional weapon systems, which are often very technologically complicated and very expensive.

How start-ups are rebuilding the West’s war economy

For decades, Western militaries assumed that better technology would outweigh greater numbers. The wars in Ukraine and Iran suggest that assumption is no longer safe.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

As always, thank you for reading and for your continued support.

Feel free to reply with feedback or suggestions.

See you next week,

The Geopolitical Desk team

P.S. Please forward this to anyone who might find it useful. If you’re reading this second-hand, you can sign up for our free newsletter here.

Professionals across energy markets, diplomacy, risk advisory and investment use GPD Intelligence to track geopolitical developments before they move markets.

If you find this coverage valuable, you can unlock the full Intelligence briefings and scenario analysis.

Whoever told you that the summer is usually a slow season when it comes to the news was obviously not talking about the summer of 2026.

After several months of cautious optimism, the Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran has shown signs of immense stress.

Additionally, in northern Mali, Tuareg and jihadist forces launched their second major offensive this year, putting the Malian military and Russian mercenaries on the defensive

And the U.S. Senator from South Carolina, Lindsey Graham, had died from a "brief and sudden illness". Graham had been influential in guiding U.S. foreign policy for years.

Now,

Lets get into it

U.S. and Iran locked in a war of interpretations

What happened: Viewing Oman's southern route in the Strait of Hormuz as a violation of the MoU, Iran targeted several vessels transiting the route this week. The United States responded by cancelling Iran's oil waivers and launching its largest strikes on Iran in weeks, with Trump saying he believes the MoU is now over. Iran retaliated with strikes on U.S. logistical and military assets in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and Jordan.

Why it matters: Markets prematurely priced in a swift return to pre-war Gulf transit levels once the MoU was announced. Iran and the U.S. read Article 5 in conflicting ways, a gap likely to produce further clashes, traffic disruption, and potentially a renewed U.S. blockade on Iran.

What it means: The MoU reflects months of diplomatic effort and is unlikely to collapse outright. Its implementation, however, is regressing, with differences piling up faster than they're resolved. That trajectory won't shift unless Tehran, Muscat and Doha find a compromise between Iran's need for nominal control over the Strait, the world's need for full transit, and U.S.-GCC resistance to Iranian dominance.

In this week's article, GPD examines how last month's Iranian bank disruptions exposed long-standing vulnerabilities in the country's aging IT infrastructure amid mounting external pressure.

Read the article here:

When cards stop working: the fragility of Iran’s banking system

What started as problems with card payments turned into an 18-day disruption that exposed the hidden fragility of one of Iran’s most critical civilian infrastructures.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

A second Tuareg/jihadist offensive in northern Mali catches the Russians off guard

What happened: This week Tuareg separatists of the FLA and JNIM jihadists launched their second major offensive of the year in northern Mali. The target, the strategic desert town of Anefis and its local garrison, were quickly assaulted. Malian security forces and Russia’s paramilitary Africa Corps were pushed out of town, and were only able to break the rebel blockade and retake Anefis after a week of fighting.

Why it matters: The relatively successful insurgent offensive on Anefis has once again demonstrated the weakness of the Malian military and laid bare the Russians’ limited ability to halt the advancing jihadists and sustain Malian state control over the wide expanses of the north.

What it means: The wider Sahel region faces a dangerous, cascading security crisis as borders blur under insurgent expansion. With Western forces expelled, the fragile Alliance of Sahel States must increasingly pool resources to fight common threats, as seen by Niger and Burkina Faso assisting Mali. As al-Qaeda affiliates capture massive swaths of territory and coordinate with ethnic separatists, the entire region is becoming increasingly vulnerable to state collapse, threatening coastal West Africa.

Influential Senator Lindsey Graham dies at 71 

What happened: Graham reportedly passed away from “a brief and sudden illness" at the age of 71. His death has come as a surprise, as the late senator recently returned from a trip to Ukraine, and was preparing to run for reelection for his senate seat in November. 

Why it matters: Having been a presence in U.S. politics since his election to the House of Representatives in 1994 and his election to the Senate in 2002, Graham has had a significant impact on both U.S. domestic and foreign policy. A prominent interventionist, Graham was a vocal supporter of the United States' 2003 invasion of Iraq and has remained a staunch supporter of both Ukraine and Israel. Although he was previously an opponent of U.S. President Donald Trump, he has since become a close ally and has been instrumental in securing approval for Trump's judicial nominations.

What it means: Graham's passing will likely place additional pressure on the Republican majority in the Senate, with senior Republican Senator Mitch McConnell still absent due to an undisclosed illness. While South Carolina's Republican governor will be able to appoint an interim senator immediately, the appointee is unlikely to match the influence Graham had built within the institution. This could also potentially affect Trump's current support for Ukraine and the U.S. war with Iran, two theatres in which Graham had been a strong advocate.

In this week's America coverage, GDP takes a closer look at Trump's influence within the capital city of Washington, D.C., and how his increasing control over city affairs reveals his vision for the rest of the country.

Read the article here:

Trump City and his vision for America

The U.S. President sees D.C. as his own backyard, and has sought to build his own version of America. However, he has stumbled into Washington’s long and complicated history, adding another chapter into D.C.’s fight for determination.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

As always, thank you for reading and for your continued support.

Feel free to reply with feedback or suggestions.

See you next week,

The Geopolitical Desk team

P.S. Please forward this to anyone who might find it useful. If you’re reading this second-hand, you can sign up for our free newsletter here.

Professionals across energy markets, diplomacy, risk advisory and investment use GPD Intelligence to track geopolitical developments before they move markets.

If you find this coverage valuable, you can unlock the full Intelligence briefings and scenario analysis.

It's been an intense week around the world and not just because we’ve reached the knock-out stage of the World Cup.

In Venezuela relief efforts following the devastating earthquake have laid bare the shortcomings of the current government.

Additionally, in western Libya another political conflict is surfacing as a power struggle has broken out over control over the country’s intelligence agency.

And alongside the Afghanistan - Pakistan border a new round of cross border strikes took place following a deadly terror attack in the southern port city of Karachi.

Now,

Lets get into it

Criticism swells over government’s earthquake response

What happened: A major double-earthquake hit the Venezuelan coast last week leading to thousands of casualties. In the aftermath the government’s response was slow, leading to more preventable casualties.

Why it matters: Ever since taking on the role of interim president, Delcy Rodriguez has been trying to polish the image of the Chavista regime while mending ties with the Trump admin. The government’s failure to adequately respond to the earthquake and set up rescue and aid efforts are causing a major dent in that image.

What it means: As criticism grows and shock among the people starts to turn into anger, pressure will continue to build on Delcy to finally commit to elections. Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado is already planning a return to the country.

Read the full analysis:

Shaking the foundation: When earthquakes disrupt Latin America governments

The Venezuelan ruling apparatus is worried about being weakened politically following destructive earthquakes, and rightly so. Latin America offers plenty of examples of authoritarian states collapsing after failing to respond to a natural disaster.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

Power struggle erupts within Libya’s intelligence agency

What happened: In an exclusive interview with our desk, Presidential co-Chair Musa al-Koni has revealed he registered an objection to the appointment of Abdel Majid Mlegta as the new chief of the Libyan Intelligence agency.

Why it matters: The candidacy of Mlegta is seen as an attempt by prime minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba to strengthen his own hand in the security services and therefore ensure himself a political role in any upcoming political change that might develop in the country.

What it means: As it is being speculated that Haftar’s Libyan National Army will not be keen to approve of Mlegta as chief of the intelligence agency, this move carries the risk of disrupting the current US-backed process to unify the east and west of the country. The coming days will show whether Mlegta’s will be able to hold onto the position.

Read the full analysis:

Libyan Presidential Council co-Chair claims he was “illegally” overruled in Intelligence Chief appointment

A political battle has broken out in Tripoli over control of the Libyan Intelligence Agency, which has become a fault line that risks escalating in western Libya, with broader repercussions in eastern and western relations at a time when the U.S. is pushing forward with a new unity deal.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

A new round of retaliatory strikes kicks off following a terror attack.

What happened: Pakistan and the Taliban government of Afghanistan fired on each other’s territory this past week in retaliatory strikes. The violence started when Pakistan hit targets in Afghanistan, which it said belonged to the group behind a terror attack in Karachi last week. The Taliban responded in kind by launching drone strikes on southern Pakistan, targeting what it claimed to be IS-K positions. 

Why it matters: Relations between Pakistan and the Taliban have deteriorated sharply over the past month, leading to regular flare ups of violence, often with dozens of casualties. A full on border war between the two has become a very real risk.

What it means: With this latest back-and-forth, a new normal is setting in along the border. Whenever either of the two is hit by a terror attack, the other country will be blamed and targeted as part of a retaliatory strike, greatly affecting regional security.

Oman and Iran navigate the future of the Strait

In two weeks, the deadline included in the Iran-U.S. MoU to resume maritime traffic in the Gulf back to pre-war levels will be up.

This deadline is likely to be missed, as Tehran is wary not to lose its leverage and seeks to define its future role in the Strait of Hormuz.

Oman is Iran's prime interlocutor in this endeavour to revise the strait's administration. GPD's latest article breaks down why the two coastal states hold divergent positions, despite their good relations.

Joint talks on Hormuz expose diverging interests between Oman and Iran

Often overlooked, Oman also has a voice in how traffic flows through the Strait, and both Oman and Iran will have to reconcile their opposing visions for the future of Hormuz.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

As always, thank you for reading and for your continued support.

Feel free to reply with feedback or suggestions.

See you next week,

The Geopolitical Desk team

P.S. Please forward this to anyone who might find it useful. If you’re reading this second-hand, you can sign up for our free newsletter here.

Professionals across energy markets, diplomacy, risk advisory and investment use GPD Intelligence to track geopolitical developments before they move markets.

If you find this coverage valuable, you can unlock the full Intelligence briefings and scenario analysis.

It's been a hot one across Europe this week, with record breaking heat across both the United Kingdom and France.

Summer is truly here, and with it comes a new British Prime Minister as Keir Starmer announces he is stepping down as Labour leader. 

Additionally, we monitor the evolving situation in Sudan, and how a new fight is gearing up in the center of the country that could determine the pace of negotiations.

We also have new in-depth analysis on Iran’s military conduct during the Ramadan War, seeing how it performed against the U.S., and how both sides might adjust their tactics if the MoU breaks down. 

Lastly, The Geopolitical Desk is active on both X and Instagram, where we post our new articles as soon as they are published, provide exclusive insights, and deliver custom content. Hope to see you all over there!

Now,

Lets get into it

A battle brewing around El Obeid

What happened: The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan are gathering forces for a potential attack on the central city of El Obeid, which is currently held by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF).

Why it matters: With both the RSF and the SAF weakened by three years of constant fighting, both sides are moving towards renewed negotiations to end the war. However, the RSF and their leader, Hemedti, want to strengthen their position at the negotiating table and see the capture of El Obeid as a way to increase their leverage. 

What it means: The battle likely means that negotiations will not be able to begin until it is over, which could take months. The RSF's siege of the western city of El Fasher lasted for weeks and proved devastating for the city. El Obeid could suffer a similar fate, leading to thousands more casualties, all in pursuit of a stronger negotiating position.

Read the full analysis:

El Obeid: The hinge of Sudan’s war

The RSF is preparing to attack the city of El Obeid as a means to gain leverage in peace talks. The result may be more war and mass killings.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

The United Kingdom loses its PM

What happened: U.K. Prime Minister and Labour Party leader Keir Starmer announced his plans to step down as leader of the party, triggering a leadership election that is likely to be won by newly elected Makersfield MP Andy Burnham.

Why it matters: Starmer's Labour government, which commands a large majority in the U.K. Parliament, has struggled to govern over the past year. Starmer was criticised for being indecisive and attempting to emulate the migration policies of the far-right Reform Party, while also facing multiple crises involving former U.S. Ambassador Peter Mandelson's connections with Jeffrey Epstein. Starmer had tried to head off challenges to his leadership for months, but ultimately stood down following Andy Burnham's rise as an MP.

What it means: Burnham is Labour's most popular politician and appears likely to become the party's next leader and Prime Minister. Many hope he can reinvigorate Labour's declining support, as it continues to struggle against opposition parties on both the right and the left.

A breakdown of military strategies in the Ramadan War

In a recent report from The Geopolitical Desk, we break down how Iran fought a war it could not win outright but could not afford to lose, and how it threaded that needle. The analysis unpacks the effectiveness and limits of Tehran's military strategy while answering critical questions, including:

• Why Iran's underground missile cities, mobile air defence, and asymmetric naval tactics consistently outperformed Western pre-war estimates.
• How Tehran's strategy shifted mid-war, from an indiscriminate "shock doctrine" campaign to a calibrated, retaliatory posture, and why Iranian strategists may abandon that restraint in a future round.
• Where Iran fell short of its own war aims, from an untouched U.S. Navy to an energy shock that never reached market-moving scale.

While hostilities have ended with the signing of a memorandum of understanding, the risk of a return to conflict remains just below the surface. The report also examines how both Tehran and Washington are likely to adjust their military postures based on the war's lessons, and what that recalibration could mean for the Gulf and the wider region.

Originally available only to paid subscribers, The Geopolitical Desk has made the report available free of charge to everyone for a limited time.

Read the full analysis:

How Iran survived a war it could not win

Years of planning by the Islamic Republic for a theoretical war with the United States was finally put to the test. Now with the ceasefire, both Iran and the U.S. will look at what went right and what went wrong.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

What happens next after the MoU deal?

Exclusive for intelligence subscribers, this recent report from The Geopolitical Desk details the situation surrounding the recent Iran-U.S. MoU and the risks facing its full implementation.

Both the United States and Iran have reasons to try to see this MoU develop into a full agreement, as it would help rebalance a long and difficult relationship. However, the current internal political complexities in each country, combined with the continuing war in Lebanon, make the MoU’s success unlikely.

In this report, we analyse the greatest risks facing each country and what this deal could mean for the future of the Gulf.

As always, thank you for reading and for your continued support.

Feel free to reply with feedback or suggestions.

See you next week,

The Geopolitical Desk team

P.S. Please forward this to anyone who might find it useful. If you’re reading this second-hand, you can sign up for our free newsletter here.

Professionals across energy markets, diplomacy, risk advisory and investment use GPD Intelligence to track geopolitical developments before they move markets.

If you find this coverage valuable, you can unlock the full Intelligence briefings and scenario analysis.