Libya gets its first domestic credit rating agency

We’ve reached the end of the World Cup, and what a tournament it has been! When teams from around the world come together politics rarely stays home, and this time is no different.

A hotly contested semifinal between England and Argentina became the main stage of the return of a centuries-old dispute surrounding the Falkland Islands.

Outside of the World Cup, in Ukraine, a major controversy is unraveling as president Zelensky has fired his popular Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov.

While fighting between the U.S. and Iran has once again come into force, increasing the risk of further escalation.

Lastly, The Geopolitical Desk is active on both X and Instagram, where we post our new articles as soon as they are published, provide exclusive insights, and deliver custom content. Hope to see you all over there!

Now,

Lets get into it

The U.S. and Iran trade blows around the Gulf

What happened: The U.S. has struck southern Iran almost nightly, targeting launch capabilities, logistics nodes and military infrastructure. Civilian locations have also been repeatedly hit, i.e bridges, fishing piers, energy sites including the perimeter of Bushehr's NPP. Iran has cut Gulf maritime traffic to near zero, retaliated against U.S. regional bases, and gradually widened its strikes into Gulf economic infrastructure - tankers, desalination plants, oil facility - as U.S. strikes intensify.

Why it matters: Neither side has abandoned the MoU outright, but the diplomatic track is fatigued and largely inactive, with little effort to bring the two belligerents back to talks. GCC states are increasingly drawn into the hostilities behind the scenes. The guardrails that previously capped escalation between Iran and the U.S. are no longer holding, and risk levels are approaching those seen in early April.

What it means: Israel is holding back because the current target set doesn't justify the risk. The U.S. sees it differently, maximising its degradation campaign on the bet that tactical wins will eventually break Tehran's power projection in the Gulf, a course that risks eroding Tehran's strategic restraint and drawing more economic targets into the crosshairs.

Risk metre (High): Escalation risk rests primarily with the U.S. Wider geographic strikes on Iran or a heavy shift toward Iranian economic targets could push the conflict to a new threshold. Gulf energy targets are once more exposed, with Tehran already signalling the Red Sea as its next likely maritime chokepoint.

President Zelensky fires Ukraine’s popular Minister of Defense.

What happened: On July 16, 2026, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov after just six months in office. The firing stemmed from severe tension between Fedorov—a tech-minded reformer—and General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief. Fedorov had implemented strict anti-corruption audits and digital open-tender systems that directly clashed with the traditional military establishment.

Why it matters: Fedorov was highly popular among the public and Western allies for modernizing Ukraine's drone and cyber warfare. His removal triggered rare wartime protests across multiple Ukrainian cities, with citizens and civil society decrying the move as a blow to transparency.

What it means: By backing General Syrskyi over Fedorov, Zelenskyy prioritizes political alignment over bureaucratic reform. Critics warn the decision could slow defense modernization, complicate Western drone production agreements, and damage public trust in the administration. People also fear that replacing the Minister of Defense, at this key moment, jeopardizes the advantage which Ukraine has created on the battlefield

Las Malvinas son Argentina's banner at World Cup sparks diplomatic controversy

What happened: Following Argentina's 2-1 World Cup semi-final victory over England in Atlanta, several Argentine players displayed a fan banner on the pitch reading "Las Malvinas son Argentinas". This direct claim to the British-governed Falkland Islands prompted immediate, formal condemnation from Downing Street and the Falkland Islands Government, alongside demands for a thorough FIFA investigation. In the days before the match Argentina’s Foreign Minister had already made remarks which offended the Falklanders, describing them as an “artificial population”.

Why it matters: The display of the banner and the controversy around it have pushed this centuries old dispute back to the main stage. Rather than deescalating tensions, Argentina's Foreign Ministry immediately backed the players with a formal communique, using the global tournament's spotlight to forcefully assert its sovereign claims to a massive international audience.

What it means: The incident underscores how the dispute around the Falklands remains an active diplomatic wound, easily aggravated by symbolic theater. Coming directly on the heels of recent bilateral friction—specifically a formal Argentine protest over unnotified British warship movements in the South Atlantic—the match has hardened state rhetoric on both sides.

Exclusive Report: NOC Reshuffle Agreement reached

Previously reported by Libya Desk Consulting, Libya’s eastern and western factions had agreed to replace the executive board of the National Oil Corporation and most of its subsidiaries. In this exclusive report from GPD, we learn that the agreement has since been expanded, with both factions establishing a proposed timeline. Subscribers can read the details here:

Agreement reached to reshuffle Libya’s NOC

Libya’s oil sector may soon undergo its most significant leadership reshuffle in years.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

Jihadist pressure continues on Bamako

This week, we take a deeper dive into Mali, where government forces were able to just barely beat back a jihadist advance. Bamako and their Russian allies are continuing to try and hold on, but northern jihadist forces and their Tuareg allies are slowly becoming more bold in their attacks.

Mali’s slow crumbling under jihadist attacks

For the second time this year, the Malian military faced a major assault by a coalition of Tuareg separatists and al-Qaeda jihadist forces in the vast desert expanses of the north. Is Mali on track to become the first Sahel state to fall to resurgent jihadism?

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

The West begins to eye new weapon systems

This latest article explored the new trend in western weapons procurement: cheap combat systems often made by tech start-ups. The effectiveness of Ukrainian and Iranian drones in fighting their much larger opponents has interested western capitals to look beyond their traditional weapon systems, which are often very technologically complicated and very expensive.

How start-ups are rebuilding the West’s war economy

For decades, Western militaries assumed that better technology would outweigh greater numbers. The wars in Ukraine and Iran suggest that assumption is no longer safe.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

As always, thank you for reading and for your continued support.

Feel free to reply with feedback or suggestions.

See you next week,

The Geopolitical Desk team

P.S. Please forward this to anyone who might find it useful. If you’re reading this second-hand, you can sign up for our free newsletter here.

Professionals across energy markets, diplomacy, risk advisory and investment use GPD Intelligence to track geopolitical developments before they move markets.

If you find this coverage valuable, you can unlock the full Intelligence briefings and scenario analysis.

Whoever told you that the summer is usually a slow season when it comes to the news was obviously not talking about the summer of 2026.

After several months of cautious optimism, the Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran has shown signs of immense stress.

Additionally, in northern Mali, Tuareg and jihadist forces launched their second major offensive this year, putting the Malian military and Russian mercenaries on the defensive

And the U.S. Senator from South Carolina, Lindsey Graham, had died from a "brief and sudden illness". Graham had been influential in guiding U.S. foreign policy for years.

Now,

Lets get into it

U.S. and Iran locked in a war of interpretations

What happened: Viewing Oman's southern route in the Strait of Hormuz as a violation of the MoU, Iran targeted several vessels transiting the route this week. The United States responded by cancelling Iran's oil waivers and launching its largest strikes on Iran in weeks, with Trump saying he believes the MoU is now over. Iran retaliated with strikes on U.S. logistical and military assets in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and Jordan.

Why it matters: Markets prematurely priced in a swift return to pre-war Gulf transit levels once the MoU was announced. Iran and the U.S. read Article 5 in conflicting ways, a gap likely to produce further clashes, traffic disruption, and potentially a renewed U.S. blockade on Iran.

What it means: The MoU reflects months of diplomatic effort and is unlikely to collapse outright. Its implementation, however, is regressing, with differences piling up faster than they're resolved. That trajectory won't shift unless Tehran, Muscat and Doha find a compromise between Iran's need for nominal control over the Strait, the world's need for full transit, and U.S.-GCC resistance to Iranian dominance.

In this week's article, GPD examines how last month's Iranian bank disruptions exposed long-standing vulnerabilities in the country's aging IT infrastructure amid mounting external pressure.

Read the article here:

When cards stop working: the fragility of Iran’s banking system

What started as problems with card payments turned into an 18-day disruption that exposed the hidden fragility of one of Iran’s most critical civilian infrastructures.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

A second Tuareg/jihadist offensive in northern Mali catches the Russians off guard

What happened: This week Tuareg separatists of the FLA and JNIM jihadists launched their second major offensive of the year in northern Mali. The target, the strategic desert town of Anefis and its local garrison, were quickly assaulted. Malian security forces and Russia’s paramilitary Africa Corps were pushed out of town, and were only able to break the rebel blockade and retake Anefis after a week of fighting.

Why it matters: The relatively successful insurgent offensive on Anefis has once again demonstrated the weakness of the Malian military and laid bare the Russians’ limited ability to halt the advancing jihadists and sustain Malian state control over the wide expanses of the north.

What it means: The wider Sahel region faces a dangerous, cascading security crisis as borders blur under insurgent expansion. With Western forces expelled, the fragile Alliance of Sahel States must increasingly pool resources to fight common threats, as seen by Niger and Burkina Faso assisting Mali. As al-Qaeda affiliates capture massive swaths of territory and coordinate with ethnic separatists, the entire region is becoming increasingly vulnerable to state collapse, threatening coastal West Africa.

Influential Senator Lindsey Graham dies at 71 

What happened: Graham reportedly passed away from “a brief and sudden illness" at the age of 71. His death has come as a surprise, as the late senator recently returned from a trip to Ukraine, and was preparing to run for reelection for his senate seat in November. 

Why it matters: Having been a presence in U.S. politics since his election to the House of Representatives in 1994 and his election to the Senate in 2002, Graham has had a significant impact on both U.S. domestic and foreign policy. A prominent interventionist, Graham was a vocal supporter of the United States' 2003 invasion of Iraq and has remained a staunch supporter of both Ukraine and Israel. Although he was previously an opponent of U.S. President Donald Trump, he has since become a close ally and has been instrumental in securing approval for Trump's judicial nominations.

What it means: Graham's passing will likely place additional pressure on the Republican majority in the Senate, with senior Republican Senator Mitch McConnell still absent due to an undisclosed illness. While South Carolina's Republican governor will be able to appoint an interim senator immediately, the appointee is unlikely to match the influence Graham had built within the institution. This could also potentially affect Trump's current support for Ukraine and the U.S. war with Iran, two theatres in which Graham had been a strong advocate.

In this week's America coverage, GDP takes a closer look at Trump's influence within the capital city of Washington, D.C., and how his increasing control over city affairs reveals his vision for the rest of the country.

Read the article here:

Trump City and his vision for America

The U.S. President sees D.C. as his own backyard, and has sought to build his own version of America. However, he has stumbled into Washington’s long and complicated history, adding another chapter into D.C.’s fight for determination.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

As always, thank you for reading and for your continued support.

Feel free to reply with feedback or suggestions.

See you next week,

The Geopolitical Desk team

P.S. Please forward this to anyone who might find it useful. If you’re reading this second-hand, you can sign up for our free newsletter here.

Professionals across energy markets, diplomacy, risk advisory and investment use GPD Intelligence to track geopolitical developments before they move markets.

If you find this coverage valuable, you can unlock the full Intelligence briefings and scenario analysis.

It's been an intense week around the world and not just because we’ve reached the knock-out stage of the World Cup.

In Venezuela relief efforts following the devastating earthquake have laid bare the shortcomings of the current government.

Additionally, in western Libya another political conflict is surfacing as a power struggle has broken out over control over the country’s intelligence agency.

And alongside the Afghanistan - Pakistan border a new round of cross border strikes took place following a deadly terror attack in the southern port city of Karachi.

Now,

Lets get into it

Criticism swells over government’s earthquake response

What happened: A major double-earthquake hit the Venezuelan coast last week leading to thousands of casualties. In the aftermath the government’s response was slow, leading to more preventable casualties.

Why it matters: Ever since taking on the role of interim president, Delcy Rodriguez has been trying to polish the image of the Chavista regime while mending ties with the Trump admin. The government’s failure to adequately respond to the earthquake and set up rescue and aid efforts are causing a major dent in that image.

What it means: As criticism grows and shock among the people starts to turn into anger, pressure will continue to build on Delcy to finally commit to elections. Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado is already planning a return to the country.

Read the full analysis:

Shaking the foundation: When earthquakes disrupt Latin America governments

The Venezuelan ruling apparatus is worried about being weakened politically following destructive earthquakes, and rightly so. Latin America offers plenty of examples of authoritarian states collapsing after failing to respond to a natural disaster.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

Power struggle erupts within Libya’s intelligence agency

What happened: In an exclusive interview with our desk, Presidential co-Chair Musa al-Koni has revealed he registered an objection to the appointment of Abdel Majid Mlegta as the new chief of the Libyan Intelligence agency.

Why it matters: The candidacy of Mlegta is seen as an attempt by prime minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba to strengthen his own hand in the security services and therefore ensure himself a political role in any upcoming political change that might develop in the country.

What it means: As it is being speculated that Haftar’s Libyan National Army will not be keen to approve of Mlegta as chief of the intelligence agency, this move carries the risk of disrupting the current US-backed process to unify the east and west of the country. The coming days will show whether Mlegta’s will be able to hold onto the position.

Read the full analysis:

Libyan Presidential Council co-Chair claims he was “illegally” overruled in Intelligence Chief appointment

A political battle has broken out in Tripoli over control of the Libyan Intelligence Agency, which has become a fault line that risks escalating in western Libya, with broader repercussions in eastern and western relations at a time when the U.S. is pushing forward with a new unity deal.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

A new round of retaliatory strikes kicks off following a terror attack.

What happened: Pakistan and the Taliban government of Afghanistan fired on each other’s territory this past week in retaliatory strikes. The violence started when Pakistan hit targets in Afghanistan, which it said belonged to the group behind a terror attack in Karachi last week. The Taliban responded in kind by launching drone strikes on southern Pakistan, targeting what it claimed to be IS-K positions. 

Why it matters: Relations between Pakistan and the Taliban have deteriorated sharply over the past month, leading to regular flare ups of violence, often with dozens of casualties. A full on border war between the two has become a very real risk.

What it means: With this latest back-and-forth, a new normal is setting in along the border. Whenever either of the two is hit by a terror attack, the other country will be blamed and targeted as part of a retaliatory strike, greatly affecting regional security.

Oman and Iran navigate the future of the Strait

In two weeks, the deadline included in the Iran-U.S. MoU to resume maritime traffic in the Gulf back to pre-war levels will be up.

This deadline is likely to be missed, as Tehran is wary not to lose its leverage and seeks to define its future role in the Strait of Hormuz.

Oman is Iran's prime interlocutor in this endeavour to revise the strait's administration. GPD's latest article breaks down why the two coastal states hold divergent positions, despite their good relations.

Joint talks on Hormuz expose diverging interests between Oman and Iran

Often overlooked, Oman also has a voice in how traffic flows through the Strait, and both Oman and Iran will have to reconcile their opposing visions for the future of Hormuz.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

As always, thank you for reading and for your continued support.

Feel free to reply with feedback or suggestions.

See you next week,

The Geopolitical Desk team

P.S. Please forward this to anyone who might find it useful. If you’re reading this second-hand, you can sign up for our free newsletter here.

Professionals across energy markets, diplomacy, risk advisory and investment use GPD Intelligence to track geopolitical developments before they move markets.

If you find this coverage valuable, you can unlock the full Intelligence briefings and scenario analysis.

It's been a hot one across Europe this week, with record breaking heat across both the United Kingdom and France.

Summer is truly here, and with it comes a new British Prime Minister as Keir Starmer announces he is stepping down as Labour leader. 

Additionally, we monitor the evolving situation in Sudan, and how a new fight is gearing up in the center of the country that could determine the pace of negotiations.

We also have new in-depth analysis on Iran’s military conduct during the Ramadan War, seeing how it performed against the U.S., and how both sides might adjust their tactics if the MoU breaks down. 

Lastly, The Geopolitical Desk is active on both X and Instagram, where we post our new articles as soon as they are published, provide exclusive insights, and deliver custom content. Hope to see you all over there!

Now,

Lets get into it

A battle brewing around El Obeid

What happened: The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan are gathering forces for a potential attack on the central city of El Obeid, which is currently held by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF).

Why it matters: With both the RSF and the SAF weakened by three years of constant fighting, both sides are moving towards renewed negotiations to end the war. However, the RSF and their leader, Hemedti, want to strengthen their position at the negotiating table and see the capture of El Obeid as a way to increase their leverage. 

What it means: The battle likely means that negotiations will not be able to begin until it is over, which could take months. The RSF's siege of the western city of El Fasher lasted for weeks and proved devastating for the city. El Obeid could suffer a similar fate, leading to thousands more casualties, all in pursuit of a stronger negotiating position.

Read the full analysis:

El Obeid: The hinge of Sudan’s war

The RSF is preparing to attack the city of El Obeid as a means to gain leverage in peace talks. The result may be more war and mass killings.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

The United Kingdom loses its PM

What happened: U.K. Prime Minister and Labour Party leader Keir Starmer announced his plans to step down as leader of the party, triggering a leadership election that is likely to be won by newly elected Makersfield MP Andy Burnham.

Why it matters: Starmer's Labour government, which commands a large majority in the U.K. Parliament, has struggled to govern over the past year. Starmer was criticised for being indecisive and attempting to emulate the migration policies of the far-right Reform Party, while also facing multiple crises involving former U.S. Ambassador Peter Mandelson's connections with Jeffrey Epstein. Starmer had tried to head off challenges to his leadership for months, but ultimately stood down following Andy Burnham's rise as an MP.

What it means: Burnham is Labour's most popular politician and appears likely to become the party's next leader and Prime Minister. Many hope he can reinvigorate Labour's declining support, as it continues to struggle against opposition parties on both the right and the left.

A breakdown of military strategies in the Ramadan War

In a recent report from The Geopolitical Desk, we break down how Iran fought a war it could not win outright but could not afford to lose, and how it threaded that needle. The analysis unpacks the effectiveness and limits of Tehran's military strategy while answering critical questions, including:

• Why Iran's underground missile cities, mobile air defence, and asymmetric naval tactics consistently outperformed Western pre-war estimates.
• How Tehran's strategy shifted mid-war, from an indiscriminate "shock doctrine" campaign to a calibrated, retaliatory posture, and why Iranian strategists may abandon that restraint in a future round.
• Where Iran fell short of its own war aims, from an untouched U.S. Navy to an energy shock that never reached market-moving scale.

While hostilities have ended with the signing of a memorandum of understanding, the risk of a return to conflict remains just below the surface. The report also examines how both Tehran and Washington are likely to adjust their military postures based on the war's lessons, and what that recalibration could mean for the Gulf and the wider region.

Originally available only to paid subscribers, The Geopolitical Desk has made the report available free of charge to everyone for a limited time.

Read the full analysis:

How Iran survived a war it could not win

Years of planning by the Islamic Republic for a theoretical war with the United States was finally put to the test. Now with the ceasefire, both Iran and the U.S. will look at what went right and what went wrong.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

What happens next after the MoU deal?

Exclusive for intelligence subscribers, this recent report from The Geopolitical Desk details the situation surrounding the recent Iran-U.S. MoU and the risks facing its full implementation.

Both the United States and Iran have reasons to try to see this MoU develop into a full agreement, as it would help rebalance a long and difficult relationship. However, the current internal political complexities in each country, combined with the continuing war in Lebanon, make the MoU’s success unlikely.

In this report, we analyse the greatest risks facing each country and what this deal could mean for the future of the Gulf.

As always, thank you for reading and for your continued support.

Feel free to reply with feedback or suggestions.

See you next week,

The Geopolitical Desk team

P.S. Please forward this to anyone who might find it useful. If you’re reading this second-hand, you can sign up for our free newsletter here.

Professionals across energy markets, diplomacy, risk advisory and investment use GPD Intelligence to track geopolitical developments before they move markets.

If you find this coverage valuable, you can unlock the full Intelligence briefings and scenario analysis.

As the United States and Iran signalled a mutual interest in finding an end to the conflict, older conflicts once again made international headlines.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has now lasted longer than the First World War, returned to the forefront as Ukrainian drones struck oil infrastructure in the Russian capital.

The U.S.-Iran war has commanded much of the world's attention over the past three months, diverting focus from ongoing crises in places such as Libya, Tunisia, and Ukraine.

In Libya, the Trump administration, through the efforts of Massad Boulos, has pushed forward with negotiations, while Tunisia has been rattled by its recent loss at the World Cup.

Ukraine's bold attack on Moscow served as a reminder that the conflict remains just as volatile as it was years ago, and that Iran is only one of many international challenges confronting Trump.

Even there, Trump may be forced back into the conflict sooner than he would like, with the recently signed MoU already showing signs of strain.

Now,

Lets get into it

Kicking the ball down the road

What happened: After months of muscle diplomacy, the U.S. and Iran signed a 14-point MoU formally ending hostilities and ceasing maritime traffic restrictions in the Gulf. 

Why it matters: The MoU signals to markets the end of the Iran war, but in practice leaves an extendable 60 days for technical teams to resolve the utterly complex issues of limiting Iran's nuclear programme and lifting multi-layered U.S. sanctions. 

What it means: The MoU is a thinly defined roadmap where both sides only agreed on the overlapping section of a Venn diagram. Israeli strikes on Lebanon, U.S. backtracking forced by domestic politics, and IRGC desire to prove continued leverage are likely to spoil talks to achieve a final deal and bring renewed but manageable uncertainty to global markets.

Read the full analysis:

A closed deal doesn’t mean an open strait

While many hope the U.S. and Iran are now aligned in regards to opening the strait, the reality is both countries have created two different realities that they refuse to compromise.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

Thirst for restraint: Water and the limits to the Iran War

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency has long described water as the “strategic commodity” of the Middle East, and the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has highlighted how water has emerged as both a powerful potential weapon and also a durable drag on conflict escalation.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

Massad Boulos continues to push negotiations in Libya

What happened: U.S. Special Advisor for Africa Massad Boulos revealed in an interview with British media that he plans to unite the Dabaiba and Haftar families in a new unity government.

Why it matters: The announcement is the first public acknowledgement of the talks, which Libya Desk has covered in its previous reporting over the past few months. It also confirmed Boulos' plan to have Libyan National Army (LNA) Deputy Commander Saddam Haftar become Chairman of the Presidential Council, while Government of National Unity (GNU) Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba would retain his position.

What it means: There are still plenty of roadblocks to any future unity agreement, but the announcement and reports that negotiations are moving forward suggest that Boulos is confident in the progress made so far.

Read the full analysis:

The Boulos process is farther than it looks

Despite clear roadblocks, the U.S. Senior Advisor for Africa has been able to get both sides to deepen negotiations.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

Tunisia faces increased anger over football loss

What happened: Tunisia's national football team lost 5-1 to Sweden in its opening match. Following the defeat, the coach was dismissed as Tunisians across the country expressed anger towards the government.

Why it matters: Tunisian President Kais Saied has clamped down on dissent in the country as it continues to face a major economic crisis. Frustration over the defeat was less about the match itself and more a pressure valve for Tunisians across the country to express their anger without fear of reprisal.

What it means: It was a rare instance of unity in a heavily divided country, and the sport, which is extremely popular, could become a lightning rod for protests if the team continues to struggle. Saied has been able to retain power by exploiting political divisions within the country, but the unifying nature of the sport could ultimately threaten to bring protesters onto the streets if the team is eliminated.

Read the full analysis:

The defeat that broke Tunisia’s silence

For many in the North African country, the national team’s loss at the hands of Sweden was the final straw.

The Geopolitical DeskThe Geopolitical Desk

Russia and Ukraine strike each other’s capitals

What happened: At the beginning of the week, Russia launched a series of drone and missile strikes on multiple Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, damaging the Pechersk Lavra Monastery, one of the holiest sites in Eastern Christian Orthodoxy. Ukraine responded by launching multiple drones at the Russian capital, Moscow, notably striking a large oil refinery and creating toxic clouds above the city.

Why it matters: Ukraine demonstrated that it has developed the capability to strike deep into Russia and is willing to retaliate against attacks on its major cities. It also highlights how Ukraine's strategy of domestically producing inexpensive combat drones is paying off, as they are contributing to its recent success on the battlefield.

What it means: This does not mean the war is likely to end soon, despite many Moscow residents waking up shocked to realise they were under attack. Russians have remained relatively insulated from the war so far, and attacks like this are unlikely to turn public opinion against it. However, it does demonstrate that Ukraine has been able to build resilience despite reduced support from the United States, and that Russia is likely to face an increasing threat of future Ukrainian attacks the longer this war lingers.

As always, thank you for reading and for your continued support.

Feel free to reply with feedback or suggestions.

See you next week,

The Geopolitical Desk team

P.S. Please forward this to anyone who might find it useful. If you’re reading this second-hand, you can sign up for our free newsletter here.

Professionals across energy markets, diplomacy, risk advisory and investment use GPD Intelligence to track geopolitical developments before they move markets.

If you find this coverage valuable, you can unlock the full Intelligence briefings and scenario analysis.