🇮🇷 Iran - The Geopolitical Desk

Iran's Northern Lifeline: Friends Everywhere, Solutions Nowhere

Iran has never had more Caspian friends, or needed them more. So why are its neighbours lining up pipelines and corridors that could leave Tehran more exposed than ever?

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 9 Oct 2026

Iran's Northern Lifeline: Friends Everywhere, Solutions Nowhere

Disarm or die trying: Iraq's September reckoning

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has bet his young government on a September 30 deadline to strip armed groups of their weapons, a high-stakes echo of the 2021 crisis that nearly got his predecessor killed.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 26 Aug 2026

Disarm or die trying: Iraq's September reckoning

The U.S. and Iran want a deal neither can trust

Tehran and D.C. have been stuck in their own catch-22, both have been seeking to avoid a return to active fighting, but have no real capacity to cooperate diplomatically.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 21 Aug 2026

The U.S. and Iran want a deal neither can trust

Same Camp, Different Bet: Inside Iran's Conservative Split

With Iran's hardliners facing the war they had long prepared for, they now face increasing divisions on what the goals of the conflict are, and how it should end.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 27 Jul 2026

Same Camp, Different Bet: Inside Iran's Conservative Split

When cards stop working: the fragility of Iran's banking system

What started as problems with card payments turned into an 18-day disruption that exposed the hidden fragility of one of Iran's most critical civilian infrastructures.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 9 Jul 2026

When cards stop working: the fragility of Iran's banking system

Joint talks on Hormuz expose diverging interests between Oman and Iran

Often overlooked, Oman also has a voice in how traffic flows through the Strait, and both Oman and Iran will have to reconcile their opposing visions for the future of Hormuz.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 3 Jul 2026

Joint talks on Hormuz expose diverging interests between Oman and Iran

How Iran survived a war it could not win

Years of planning by the Islamic Republic for a theoretical war with the United States was finally put to the test. Now with the ceasefire, both Iran and the U.S. will look at what went right and what went wrong.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 23 Jun 2026

How Iran survived a war it could not win

A closed deal doesn’t mean an open strait

While many hope the U.S. and Iran are now aligned in regards to opening the strait, the reality is both countries have created two different realities that they refuse to compromise.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 16 Jun 2026

A closed deal doesn’t mean an open strait

Thirst for restraint: Water and the limits to the Iran War

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency has long described water as the "strategic commodity" of the Middle East, and the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has highlighted how water has emerged as both a powerful potential weapon and also a durable drag on conflict escalation.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 15 Jun 2026

Thirst for restraint: Water and the limits to the Iran War

After the ceasefire: An Iran War Stakeholder assessment

A special report for Intelligence subscribers that breaks down the positions and possible paths forward for over 20 countries trying to navigate around the U.S.-Israel-Iran war

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 22 May 2026

After the ceasefire: An Iran War Stakeholder assessment

Intact but unreformed: Iran after the Ramadan War

The Islamic Republic survived this conflict in more or less the form it entered it. That is simultaneously its achievement and its structural trap.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 22 May 2026

Intact but unreformed: Iran after the Ramadan War

Iran’s economy under fire

The war on Iran's economy has been running for decades. U.S.-Israeli strikes on economic infrastructure in 2026 brought cascading effects on the country's economy. The result will not be collapse, but it is something more dangerous for ordinary Iranians than the war itself.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 22 May 2026