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The American naval buildup near Iran has revived debates over whether military pressure can achieve an array of often divergent objectives, ranging from imposing a diktat on Tehran to triggering regime change.
Iran's asymmetric warfare capabilities, surviving non-state allies, domestic dynamics, and potential Israeli involvement mean any escalation risks spilling beyond its original intent and inflaming the region.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s model of succinct and low-cost confrontation will be challenged. The following five scenarios show how uncontrollable factors are likely to impede a manageable exit from conflict.
Scenario A: Sustained pressure to reach a deal without war (35% likelihood)
The U.S. conducts a campaign of heightened pressure, showing it has the option to immediately engage Iran militarily while in parallel expanding sanctions enforcement.
The primary goal would be to coerce Tehran into a lopsided deal without triggering war. Considering diplomatic efforts by regional states to avoid deflagration, this scenario has high likelihood.
Currently, Tehran increasingly sees compromise as the only viable option to save itself, with Iranian diplomats allowed to play with previous redlines.
Washington, however, would want a done deal instead of any long-drawn negotiation that would allow Tehran to postpone accepting the most stringent U.S. demands, such as missile restrictions and disposal of highly-enriched uranium (HEU).
