This report covers political and security updates in Libya between March 6, 2025 - March 12, 2026. Clients can download the full report at the end of the page.
The President has walked himself into a new quagmire, but even if he finds a way to extract himself soon, the war will damage his party for the rest of his term.
The death of Ali Khamenei was expected to shake the Islamic Republic. Instead, Iranโs wartime succession and the rise of Mojtaba Khamenei reveal a regime that remains cohesive under pressure. National mobilisation, institutional loyalty and war dynamics may reinforce rather than weaken the system.
Despite intensifying strikes, the Iran war may still move toward a ceasefire. Energy market pressure, Gulf diplomacy, Iranian missile capabilities, succession politics in Tehran and Washingtonโs strategic choices will determine whether the conflict widens or stabilises.
The war on Iran is entering a dangerous phase. From disruption in the Strait of Hormuz to potential attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure and aviation hubs, several scenarios could shake global oil markets, shipping routes and regional security across West Asia.
While the U.S. and Israel have a dizzying array of strategic goals, ranging from Iranโs military weakening, change within the regime and regime change, Iran simultaneously follows two broad approaches which aim at forcing the U.S. to throw in the towel and allowing the Islamic Republic to survive.
U.S. and Israeli strikes are degrading Iranโs missile launchers and military infrastructure, but intelligence gaps, rising civilian casualties and uncertain missile stockpiles raise questions about how durable the campaignโs gains will be.
This report covers political and security updates in Libya between February 27, 2025 - March 5, 2026. Clients can download the full report at the end of the page.
After the deadly Novi Sad collapse exposed systemic corruption, Serbiaโs largest protests in decades have refused to fade. Leaderless, decentralised and sustained despite aggressive repression, a generational revolt is testing the limits of Vuฤiฤ's power.
Strikes near Kuwait and Dubai, U.S. casualties, and threats to Gulf energy routes signal a dangerous widening of the U.S.โIsrael war on Iran. From Strait of Hormuz disruption to oil price shock and regional proxy escalation, the conflict is testing worst-case scenarios.
A coordinated Arab and Gulf diplomatic push failed to stop U.S. alignment with Israelโs war on Iran. With escalation underway, scenarios now range from short, high-intensity strikes to a prolonged regional conflict. The risk of state collapse and energy market shock is no longer theoretical.
