Iran Desk - The Geopolitical Desk

Iran war: scenarios, conflict pathways and market implications

This report provides scenario mapping of the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran war, analysing potential regional escalation pathways, Strait of Hormuz disruption risk and the likelihood of further attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 26 Mar 2026

Regional escalation pathways in the U.S.-Israel-Iran war

This report provides scenario mapping of the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran war, analysing potential regional escalation pathways, Strait of Hormuz disruption risk and the likelihood of further attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 19 Mar 2026

Iran war scenarios and global energy risks

This report draws on source inquiries and ongoing research conducted by our team into the Iran–Israel–U.S. conflict and its implications for global markets.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 11 Mar 2026

Sanctions snapback and Iran's strategic eastward turn

The reimposition of United Nations sanctions as well as EU restrictive measures was expected by the Iranian leadership, notably since the 12-day-war demonstrated Western desires to confront the Islamic Republic. However, expectation doesn’t translate into preparedness.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 15 Oct 2025

Sanctions snapback and Iran's strategic eastward turn

Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the future of Eurasian connectivity

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 25 Aug 2025

Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the future of Eurasian connectivity

Iran’s strategic drift and Israel’s unfinished war

While the regional landscape remains volatile, this report outlines several pragmatic recommendations that could help Iran navigate its way out of the current quagmire through diplomatic recalibration, strategic restraint, and internal realignment.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 31 Jul 2025

Iran’s strategic drift and Israel’s unfinished war

Regaining Europe’s neutrality towards Iran

Europe’s current Iran policy is confused, reactive and counterproductive. This special report outlines the shortcomings of current policy, identifies opportunities for realignment and recommends specific steps ahead of the July 25 Istanbul meeting to restore Europe’s credibility and influence.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 24 Jul 2025

Regaining Europe’s neutrality towards Iran

Iran Political Risk Report (May 9)

This report analyzes Iran’s evolving diplomatic strategy amid renewed nuclear negotiations with the U.S. The brief explores Tehran’s cautious outreach to the Trump administration, efforts to secure limited sanctions relief, and a strategic pivot toward a multipolar global order.

By Oliver Crowley

/ 9 May 2025