Mutual distrust had long formed the basic underpinning of these three country's relationships, but changes in regional and domestic situations have finally opened up an opportunity. Turkey and the LNA had been warming to one another, but the process was hampered by that lack of trust, while Algeria continued to treat the LNA as an extension of Cairo and Abu Dhabi.
However, the recent ratification of the Turkey-Libya agreement in eastern Libya, originally signed by the Government of National Accord, now provides that unique opening, while the LNAโs consolidation of power has demonstrated it can move freely from Egypt and the UAE.
Turkey, which maintains working relationships in Algiers, Benghazi and Tripoli, is better placed than any other actor to close these gaps. If it chose to, Ankara could anchor a three-way alignment capable of advancing stability in Libya and coordinating policy towards an increasingly unstable Sahel.
Turkey and the LNA have moved past hostility
Turkey and the LNA have travelled a long way since Turkish drones and military advisers helped repel Khalifa Haftar's offensive on Tripoli in 2020. Over the past several years the two sides have shifted from open hostility towards pragmatic engagement, and both now recognise that the other could become a highly valuable strategic partner. Commercial projects, political visits and defence cooperation have followed, which suggests the main obstacle is no longer a lack of shared interest but a lack of trust.
The House of Representatives (HoR) had long teased the idea of approving the Libyan-Turkish maritime agreement, but had held off as both sides weighed options. After almost a year of deadlock, the removal of longtime HoR Speaker Agila Saleh and the consolidation of the HoR with the LNA gave al-Rajma the necessary confidence to move forward. With the recent groundbreaking ratification of the agreement, the LNA has signalled that now the impetus is on Turkey, as they demonstrated they are willing to commit, and will need to see the same from Turkey as well. For its part, Ankara will now likely have to look at its relationships in Libya, and consider what direction they might move in.
Ankara may be betting on the wrong Libyan partners
Turkey arguably offers the LNA advantages that neither Egypt nor the UAE can fully provide. Egypt has repeatedly shown that it prefers preserving Libya's political status quo to embracing disruptive change, even where that change would strengthen its supposed allies in the east, with the recent confrontation over Agila Saleh demonstrating this dynamic. The UAE remains an important partner to the LNA, although some Emirati regional positions carry political baggage that Turkey does not necessarily share.
