Earlier this month, Yemen's Houthis sent shockwaves through the Red Sea region. After declaring their truce with the Aden government and Saudi Arabia over in July, the group launched a coordinated push down the country's western coast in early September. Mokha and Dhubab fell within days, and Houthi fighters came ashore on Zuqar and on Perim, known locally as Mayyun, further tightening a grip on the Bab al-Mandab strait that their missiles and drones had already given them.
The dominance of an Iran-aligned group over this bottleneck between the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea had been a nightmare scenario for many. Global trade depends heavily on the route, and energy markets, already reeling from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, reacted with a further surge in oil prices.
The advance has also shifted calculations in the Arabian Peninsula. In late September, Riyadh hosted the UAE's vice president, Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed, in the first official visit by a senior Emirati to the kingdom since the two fell out last year over competing agendas in Yemen and Sudan. The rapprochement is one of convenience, however, and a common enemy in Yemen does not erase their rivalry on the other side of the strait.
That other side is the Horn of Africa. Eritrea, Ethiopia, Sudan, Somalia and Djibouti have been shaped by decades of war, insurgency and authoritarian rule, and they have drawn in regional powers with competing agendas, primarily the UAE and Israel, but also Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey and Iran. Those agendas already fuel wars in Sudan and now Ethiopia. If the Houthis consolidate their grip on Yemen's side of the water, these actors may be forced to double down in the Horn.
Eritrea
Eritrea's position, directly across the Bab al-Mandab, has made it a prime target for regional powers seeking either to court its government or to replace it. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt have sought closer relations with President Isaias Afwerki, whose People's Front for Democracy and Justice has ruled since independence in 1993.
The U.S. has also taken note, and in late September the Trump administration lifted the sanctions the Biden administration imposed on the ruling party and military in 2021. Asmara has hedged its bets nonetheless. It has deepened ties with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and has reportedly reopened a quiet channel to Tehran.
Israel and the UAE stand on the other side. The UAE was once close enough to Asmara to build a military base at Assab for its war against the Houthis, but it had dismantled the base by 2021, and relations have worsened since. Abu Dhabi has increasingly aligned itself with Addis Ababa, which seeks to regain access to the sea through Eritrean territory, with Assab as its most obvious prize.
