Turkey's sick economy is being treated, but the pain remains real. The IMF expects 3.4 percent growth this year and inflation easing to 28 percent by year-end, down from 35 percent a year earlier.
That remains far off from the central bankโs own inflation target, which had to be raised from 16 to 24 percent in May due to the Iran warโs impact on energy and food prices. The modest inflation slowdown is nonetheless hurting manufacturers with the Purchasing Managersโ Index showing a contractionary trend for more than two years, demonstrating that high interest rates mandated by the central bankโs disinflation programme are squeezing businesses.
Turks continue to face difficult living standards, reflected with the Turkish Statistical Instituteโs own youth May statistics showing nearly a quarter of Turks aged 15 to 24 are neither studying nor working, among the highest rates in Europe.
Yet, despite a decade of economic dรฉroute and cracking domestic popularity levels, Recep Tayyip Erdoฤan continues to be a key regional strongman whose diplomatic flair keeps putting Turkey on the map. The Turkish President remains one of the few leaders able to take calls from Moscow, Kyiv, Tehran, Brussels and Washington in the same week without any treating the others as disqualifying.
Washington: personal chemistry, concrete leverage
When it comes to Washington, Erdoฤan's strongman image has done real work with Trump, who has a well-documented weakness for leaders who project that kind of unapologetic authority. Ambassador Tom Barrack, a longtime Trump friend, has helped grease that channel from the American side.
Erdoฤan has cultivated the relationship deliberately too, breaking protocol to receive Trump himself on the tarmac at Ankara's Etimesgut Air Base on July 7, complete with a gun salute, ahead of a NATO summit.
That personal chemistry appears capable of undoing years of American estrangement from Ankara, dating back to Trump's own first term, when Washington imposed CAATSA sanctions in 2019 over Turkey's S-400 purchase and expelled the country from the F-35 programme.
