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Libya’s political landscape is changing at a dramatic pace. For the first time in years, a political settlement appears increasingly realistic, with significant progress towards institutional unification and an agreement between the country’s rival authorities.
Yet this progress presents a paradox: the closer Libya gets to a political settlement, the more unstable the situation may become. Those threatened by unification are running out of options and can be expected to intensify their efforts to preserve their influence. Libya may therefore have to endure a period of heightened instability before conditions begin to improve.
Both eastern and western authorities are racing to consolidate their positions ahead of a potential agreement, although the east has made considerably greater progress. In western Libya, Turkey is helping Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba strengthen his position and consolidate his allies. Meanwhile, the Libyan National Army (LNA) continues to expand its political influence and strengthen its institutional control.
These developments are reshaping Libya’s political landscape, but they also create an increasingly volatile environment. As negotiations advance, political spoilers may resort to more disruptive measures in what could become a final attempt to obstruct a settlement. Ultimately though, all of Libya’s political actors are in a race against time, as the country continues to face a rapidly deteriorating economic situation that is increasing the risk of popular unrest.
The overlooked crisis: economic decline and public frustration
The Libya Desk team has repeatedly warned that the ongoing wave of union strikes should not be dismissed as another temporary episode of public discontent.
Years of economic mismanagement, the depreciation of the Libyan dinar, rising living costs and increasingly unequal salary adjustments have created an unsustainable situation.
While military personnel and armed groups have benefited from successive salary increases, ordinary public-sector employees have seen their purchasing power steadily eroded. For many Libyans, demanding higher wages is no longer about improving living standards but simply making ends meet.
