The disruption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is no longer a limited maritime crisis that can be contained through naval escorts or increased insurance premiums.
Regional escalation throughout 2026 revealed the fragility of the model on which Middle Eastern energy trade relied on for decades, where oil and gas production inside the Gulf was transported to global markets through a limited number of straits and maritime chokepoints that operated under freedom of movement.
With Hormuz disrupted and threats expanding to Bab al-Mandab and the Red Sea, the region has begun transitioning from temporary crisis management to a long-term geographic restructuring of its energy and transport systems.
The significance of Hormuz lies in the volume of flows passing through it. Oil movement through the strait during 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 accounted for more than a quarter of global seaborne oil trade, and nearly one-fifth of global consumption of oil and petroleum products.
Additionally, approximately one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, notably Qatari exports, passed through it. Consequently, its disruption does not affect Gulf nations alone, as according to estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), it rapidly spills over into fuel, electricity, shipping, food, and industrial production prices in Asia, Europe, and other energy-importing markets.
However, the most critical development concerns not merely the volume of disrupted oil, but the shifting concept of energy security itself. Security no longer means holding reserves and production capacity; rather, it is the ability to bring these resources to market under pressure.
A state may possess millions of barrels per day, but this capacity loses a significant portion of its value if access to ports becomes impossible, insurance companies withdraw, or pipelines and pumping stations face repeated attacks.
From bypassing Hormuz to risk distribution
Saudi Arabia and the UAE possess the most vital operational routes for bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, but even these remain exposed to kinetic attack, whether on existing pipelines or on the ambitious expansion plans.
The Saudi East-West Pipeline transports oil from Abqaiq to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, with a baseline capacity of approximately five million barrels per day, and a technical capability previously expanded to seven million.
The UAE uses the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline to transport up to approximately 1.8 million barrels per day toward Fujairah, located outside the strait. Additionally, the UAE has also sped up work on a parallel pipeline that will allow it to increase transportations to 3.6 million bpd by 2027.
