As of early 2026, the global geopolitical landscape has shifted toward the systematic disruption of energy supply chains and the reassertion of control over global maritime chokepoints.
This reflects the concept of "indirect war", which describes a strategy that avoids the high costs of direct kinetic engagement between nuclear-armed superpowers, opting instead to dismantle the target's economic foundations.
The current U.S.-Iran war has highlighted this new reality, as while Iran is not a military equal of the United States, their control over the Strait of Hormuz and ability to apply costs to the global economy has put immense pressure on the U.S.
China had tried to both pre-empt this reality while also taking advantage of the current system’s limitations, by increasing its influence in global chokepoints while trying to scale back its reliance on major imports like oil.
However, their strategy has run into recent roadblocks from U.S. President Donald Trump, forcing Beijing to consider its next steps to continue its national security strategy without invoking a direct military confrontation with the U.S.
The weakening of the "sanctioned oil" maritime route
For years, China's "teapot" independent refineries have quietly cornered the market on discounted oil from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela.
As Western sanctions shrank each country's buyer pool, China gained leverage by purchasing crude at steep discounts, routed through a shadow fleet of uninsured tankers and laundered through transshipment hubs, chiefly Malaysia, to disguise origin.
