Expert reporting on the Israel-Iran conflict and U.S. involvement, from the June 2025 Twelve-Day War to ongoing military escalation, strategic signalling, regional spillover risks and great power implications across the Middle East.
The Iran war is escalating across the Gulf, disrupting oil flows, fracturing alliances and raising risks beyond the battlefield. This week, we look at what comes next. Also: internal fractures in Trump’s foreign policy team, and Israel’s potential annexation plans.
The war with Iran is already reshaping American politics, oil markets and the future of West Asia. This week we examine Trump’s fracturing coalition, Tehran’s succession and why energy investors are suddenly rediscovering geopolitical risk.
The President has walked himself into a new quagmire, but even if he finds a way to extract himself soon, the war will damage his party for the rest of his term.
The death of Ali Khamenei was expected to shake the Islamic Republic. Instead, Iran’s wartime succession and the rise of Mojtaba Khamenei reveal a regime that remains cohesive under pressure. National mobilisation, institutional loyalty and war dynamics may reinforce rather than weaken the system.
U.S. military escalation against Iran is reshaping energy geopolitics and exposing new risks for oil and gas investors across the Middle East. From Iraq and Syria to the Eastern Mediterranean, upstream opportunities created by geopolitics may prove far less stable than they appear.
With internet shutdowns limiting reliable information, narratives range from pro-government mobilisation to quiet support for regime change, reflecting fear, anger and uncertainty across Iranian society.
Despite intensifying strikes, the Iran war may still move toward a ceasefire. Energy market pressure, Gulf diplomacy, Iranian missile capabilities, succession politics in Tehran and Washington’s strategic choices will determine whether the conflict widens or stabilises.
The Iran war is beginning to ripple across energy markets, shipping lanes and regional politics. This week’s analysis examines escalation scenarios, Iran’s strategy, succession risks in Tehran and new political signals emerging from Libya.
The war on Iran is entering a dangerous phase. From disruption in the Strait of Hormuz to potential attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure and aviation hubs, several scenarios could shake global oil markets, shipping routes and regional security across West Asia.
While the U.S. and Israel have a dizzying array of strategic goals, ranging from Iran’s military weakening, change within the regime and regime change, Iran simultaneously follows two broad approaches which aim at forcing the U.S. to throw in the towel and allowing the Islamic Republic to survive.
U.S. and Israeli strikes are degrading Iran’s missile launchers and military infrastructure, but intelligence gaps, rising civilian casualties and uncertain missile stockpiles raise questions about how durable the campaign’s gains will be.
