International Affairs - The Geopolitical Desk (Page 4)

Beyond binary scenarios for Iran-U.S. relations

Trump's "deal or kneel" rhetoric frames Iran's future as a stark choice: compliance or chaos. Yet, all signs point to protracted negotiations and tactical maneuvers rather than swift resolutions or outright war.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 13 May 2025

Beyond binary scenarios for Iran-U.S. relations

A quiet realignment in the Middle East

A quiet realignment in the Middle East sees Tehran, Arab states, and Washington converge on de-escalation amid shared interests. As Iran's threat perception shifts, Arab diplomacy grows crucial, while the Trump administration's pragmatic approach offers a path for regional stability and cooperation.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 13 May 2025

Tehran’s endgame in nuclear talks with Washington

Tehran's cautious diplomacy signals a shift in U.S.-Iran relations, as President Pezeshkian seeks economic relief while avoiding past pitfalls.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 25 Apr 2025

Tehran’s endgame in nuclear talks with Washington

A new opening for the Levant

Recent shifts in the Levant signal a transformative geopolitical landscape, marked by Bashar Assad's fall and Gulf states normalizing ties with Syria and Lebanon. As Iran retreats, regional powers must seize this moment to foster stability and collaboration, avoiding past mistakes.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 29 Jan 2025

A digital collage of Middle Eastern and global political figures, including Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Donald Trump, Mohammed bin Zayed, Mohammed bin Salman, and others, standing on a chessboard.

Why Libya appears poised for change in 2025

Libya's trajectory in 2024 has been defined by a familiar narrative: a fractured nation grappling with the repercussions of a broken state, where elites compete over wealth and territorial control. The year ahead holds both the faintest glimmer of hope and the looming risk of renewed conflict.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 23 Dec 2024

Growing momentum for a new unified government in Libya

The recent Cairo meeting between Libya's HoR and HCS has sparked renewed hope for a unified government, gaining support from various stakeholders. As Misrata pushes for political reconciliation, the UN emphasizes an inclusive electoral process, while distrust remains towards the current leadership.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 2 Aug 2024

Why the United States is stepping up engagement in a fragile Libya

A U.S. delegation, led by AFRICOM leaders, engaged with key Libyan figures to enhance counterterrorism and military collaboration, aiming to counter Russian influence. As Libya's political landscape shifts, the U.S. seeks strategic partnerships to address complex security challenges.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 24 Jul 2024

Unpacking future scenarios for Libya’s political process

This article examines three possible scenarios that Libya could be facing in the coming weeks, depending on whether it manages to achieve a breakthrough in its political process or whether it goes towards less promising paths.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 9 Jul 2024

Renewal of EU's Operation Irini reflects international divide over Libya

Launched in March 2020 by the EU's Foreign Affairs Council and in response to recommendations from the Berlin Conference on Libya, Operation Irini aims to enforce arms embargo decisions following the armed conflict in Libya.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 5 Jun 2024

Halfway through 2024, elections remain a long-shot for Libya

Despite the High National Elections Commission's (HNEC) preparations, a combination of financial hurdles, political infighting, and security concerns is casting a shadow over the electoral process.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 23 May 2024

India braves US sanctions in latest investment in Iran

India is looking at Iran for the long-term and wants to hedge its bets - even if the benefits are uncertain.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 22 May 2024

Can Stephanie Koury revive Libya’s political process?

To revive Libya’s political process, the Deputy Special Representative to the Secretary-General (DSRSG) of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) will have to be careful about several factors that could harm her mandate and help the country’s status quo thrive.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 21 May 2024