The war on Iran is entering a dangerous phase. From disruption in the Strait of Hormuz to potential attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure and aviation hubs, several scenarios could shake global oil markets, shipping routes and regional security across West Asia.
While the U.S. and Israel have a dizzying array of strategic goals, ranging from Iranโs military weakening, change within the regime and regime change, Iran simultaneously follows two broad approaches which aim at forcing the U.S. to throw in the towel and allowing the Islamic Republic to survive.
U.S. and Israeli strikes are degrading Iranโs missile launchers and military infrastructure, but intelligence gaps, rising civilian casualties and uncertain missile stockpiles raise questions about how durable the campaignโs gains will be.
Just two years ago, the Libyan National Army (LNA) was widely treated as an international pariah. Western capitals explored ways to weaken it and diplomatic engagement was limited.
Today, that picture looks increasingly outdated.
The February 28 attack on Iran has escalated into a regional war affecting aviation, shipping and energy markets. Our latest briefings track three signals that will determine whether escalation stabilises or spirals into a global economic shock.
This report covers political and security updates in Libya between February 27, 2025 - March 5, 2026. Clients can download the full report at the end of the page.
This report provides analysis and insights into Libya's energy sector for the month of February, 2026. A downloadable PDF version of the report is available at the end of the page.
After the deadly Novi Sad collapse exposed systemic corruption, Serbiaโs largest protests in decades have refused to fade. Leaderless, decentralised and sustained despite aggressive repression, a generational revolt is testing the limits of Vuฤiฤ's power.
Strikes near Kuwait and Dubai, U.S. casualties, and threats to Gulf energy routes signal a dangerous widening of the U.S.โIsrael war on Iran. From Strait of Hormuz disruption to oil price shock and regional proxy escalation, the conflict is testing worst-case scenarios.
