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Turkey's evolving agenda in the Gulf

Turkish President ErdoฤŸanโ€™s latest economic and security outreach to the Gulf could easily benefit both sides, but Turkey's ambition and the Gulf's wariness of Ankara's influence could limit their cooperation.

Tags: Gulf Cooperation Council Economy & Trade International Affairs
Turkey's evolving agenda in the Gulf
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President Recep Tayyip ErdoฤŸanโ€™s recent tour of Kuwait, Qatar and Oman marked another milestone in Ankaraโ€™s expanding Gulf outreach. What began two years ago as rapprochement with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) driven by investments is now evolving into a more ambitious agenda that blends trade diplomacy, security cooperation and political posture.

In fact, ErdoฤŸanโ€™s visit to Kuwait City and Muscat not only sought to elevate underdeveloped security and economic ties, but it also sought to project Turkey politically in the region as both a stabiliser and a voice of conscience, notably in the aftermath of the fragile Gaza ceasefire and post-Assad Syriaโ€™s reconstruction needs.

While Doha is already a convinced audience due to deep strategic and ideological ties to Turkeyโ€™s ruling AKP, it remains to be seen whether the entirety of the GCC fully adheres to Ankaraโ€™s self-proclaimed regional role, one that has risen alarm bells in Israel and could be viewed with circumspection in Abu Dhabi and Riyadh.

Trade diplomacy as a cornerstone of Turkish foreign policy

Geopolitical competition in the Middle East and Africa, opposed ideological views on the Muslim Brotherhood, and diplomatic blunders such as the 2018 assassination of Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbulโ€™s Saudi Consulate had soured Ankaraโ€™s ties with major Arab states like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt.

Battered by poor economic management and needful of a foreign policy shift, ErdoฤŸan turned the page on such fraught relations by visiting Saudi Arabia and the UAE in 2023, achieving headline-grabbing deals like Riyadhโ€™s $3bn purchase of Akinci drones and Abu Dhabiโ€™s pledge to invest $51bn in Turkey.

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