From ally to liability? Turkey corners Dabaiba in Tripoli
A recent Turkish mediated agreement between the GNU Prime Minister and Rada have cooled tensions for now, but risks still loom as Dabaiba continues to look for war.
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5 min read
Government of National Unity (GNU) Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba has continued to push for a resumption of the war in Tripoli, while Turkey has worked to try and prevent it. This back and forth struggle has continued to leave the city on edge, and Dabaiba increasingly desperate, pushing the once solid Tripoli-Ankara alliance to its breaking point.
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Since a ceasefire was signed between the Dabaiba-aligned 444th Brigade and the Special Deterrence Forces, aka Rada, in May, Tripoli has been stuck in a constant state of uncertainty. Every couple weeks, Tripoli would witness a flurry of mobilizations and deployments around the city, raising fears of a renewed offensive, and then nothing would materialize.
Sources have informed THE GEOPOLTICAL DESK, that a main reason the ceasefire has been maintained has been Turkish diplomatic efforts, and the application of pressure on security groups in the city. Dabaiba would gather support from a security actor to re-launch the offensive against Rada, but Turkey would intervene directly, meeting with the security leader and convincing them to stand down. Turkey has deep military connections with many of these groups, and leverages this to apply pressure.
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