Expert reporting on the Israel-Iran conflict and U.S. involvement, from the June 2025 Twelve-Day War to ongoing military escalation, strategic signalling, regional spillover risks and great power implications across the Middle East.
The Iran war is beginning to ripple across energy markets, shipping lanes and regional politics. This week’s analysis examines escalation scenarios, Iran’s strategy, succession risks in Tehran and new political signals emerging from Libya.
The war on Iran is entering a dangerous phase. From disruption in the Strait of Hormuz to potential attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure and aviation hubs, several scenarios could shake global oil markets, shipping routes and regional security across West Asia.
While the U.S. and Israel have a dizzying array of strategic goals, ranging from Iran’s military weakening, change within the regime and regime change, Iran simultaneously follows two broad approaches which aim at forcing the U.S. to throw in the towel and allowing the Islamic Republic to survive.
U.S. and Israeli strikes are degrading Iran’s missile launchers and military infrastructure, but intelligence gaps, rising civilian casualties and uncertain missile stockpiles raise questions about how durable the campaign’s gains will be.
The February 28 attack on Iran has escalated into a regional war affecting aviation, shipping and energy markets. Our latest briefings track three signals that will determine whether escalation stabilises or spirals into a global economic shock.
Strikes near Kuwait and Dubai, U.S. casualties, and threats to Gulf energy routes signal a dangerous widening of the U.S.–Israel war on Iran. From Strait of Hormuz disruption to oil price shock and regional proxy escalation, the conflict is testing worst-case scenarios.
A coordinated Arab and Gulf diplomatic push failed to stop U.S. alignment with Israel’s war on Iran. With escalation underway, scenarios now range from short, high-intensity strikes to a prolonged regional conflict. The risk of state collapse and energy market shock is no longer theoretical.
As the Epstein files take centre stage once again, the U.S. is continuing to mass forces near Iran. Is another geopolitical shock about to eclipse a domestic reckoning?
An American flotilla is nearing Iran as the country recovers from a violent state crackdown on mass protests. The U.S. task force’s goals remain unclear, driving tensions in southwest Asia.
