Reporting and analysis on political dynamics, military developments and regional spillover risks linked to the Twelve-Day War between Israel and Iran that started on 13 June 2025.
Despite sustaining major damage in its recent conflict with Israel, Iran played its weak card well and is nowĀ seeking to reinforce deterrence and preserve regime survival.
Amid mass arrests and a sweeping search for internal enemies, Iranās leadership is doubling down on national unity. With questions swirling around succession and the regimeās survival instincts, this piece explores how Iran is managing post-conflict uncertainty.
State collapse in Iran may not be the most likely outcome of the current war with Israel, but U.S. involvement and attempts at regime change could lead this way, thus triggering serious regional instability.
Diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis are ongoing, with the United States setting a two-week timeframe. Yet, mistrust and the continued escalation of attacks risk expanding the conflict.
Neither Israel nor the U.S. strategic objectives are set in stone and will continue to oscillate between neutering what they perceive as Iranian threats or pursuing regime change. This creates a highly volatile environment.
Israelās latest strike on Iran marks a sharp escalation, killing key military commanders and damaging strategic assets. Iranās response is unfolding in stages, aiming to restore deterrence without triggering full-scale war. This article considers the strategic implications and regional risks ahead.
