Iran is navigating a prolonged period of structural strain in which economic fragility, energy imbalances, and deep social change increasingly intersect.
At a critical moment for Lebanon, the United States placed Tom Barrack in charge of difficult negotiations, yet he has proven to be the wrong man for the job.
Nepotism, mismanagement, and liquidity shortages increasingly hamper Iran's private banking sector, with the Islamic Republic struggling to find a way out.
The reimposition of United Nations sanctions as well as EU restrictive measures was expected by the Iranian leadership, notably since the 12-day-war demonstrated Western desires to confront the Islamic Republic. However, expectation doesn’t translate into preparedness.
While the regional landscape remains volatile, this report outlines several pragmatic recommendations that could help Iran navigate its way out of the current quagmire through diplomatic recalibration, strategic restraint, and internal realignment.
Europe’s current Iran policy is confused, reactive and counterproductive. This special report outlines the shortcomings of current policy, identifies opportunities for realignment and recommends specific steps ahead of the July 25 Istanbul meeting to restore Europe’s credibility and influence.
Despite sustaining major damage in its recent conflict with Israel, Iran played its weak card well and is now seeking to reinforce deterrence and preserve regime survival.
Amid mass arrests and a sweeping search for internal enemies, Iran’s leadership is doubling down on national unity. With questions swirling around succession and the regime’s survival instincts, this piece explores how Iran is managing post-conflict uncertainty.
Tehran is weighing diplomacy against strategic ambiguity, seeking to revive nuclear negotiations, rally the Global South and preserve regime survival without surrendering core redlines.
State collapse in Iran may not be the most likely outcome of the current war with Israel, but U.S. involvement and attempts at regime change could lead this way, thus triggering serious regional instability.
Diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis are ongoing, with the United States setting a two-week timeframe. Yet, mistrust and the continued escalation of attacks risk expanding the conflict.
Neither Israel nor the U.S. strategic objectives are set in stone and will continue to oscillate between neutering what they perceive as Iranian threats or pursuing regime change. This creates a highly volatile environment.
