International Affairs - The Geopolitical Desk (Page 8)

Can regional war be averted as Iran-Israel conflict risks escalation?

Diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis are ongoing, with the United States setting a two-week timeframe. Yet, mistrust and the continued escalation of attacks risk expanding the conflict.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 20 Jun 2025

Scenarios shaping the future of the Israel-Iran conflict

Neither Israel nor the U.S. strategic objectives are set in stone and will continue to oscillate between neutering what they perceive as Iranian threats or pursuing regime change. This creates a highly volatile environment.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 17 Jun 2025

Israel’s strike on Iran and what comes next

Israel’s latest strike on Iran marks a sharp escalation, killing key military commanders and damaging strategic assets. Iran’s response is unfolding in stages, aiming to restore deterrence without triggering full-scale war. This article considers the strategic implications and regional risks ahead.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 13 Jun 2025

Israel’s strike on Iran and what comes next

Saddam Haftar's breakthroughs with Turkey and the U.S.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 14 May 2025

Saddam Haftar's breakthroughs with Turkey and the U.S.

Beyond binary scenarios for Iran-U.S. relations

Trump's "deal or kneel" rhetoric frames Iran's future as a stark choice: compliance or chaos. Yet, all signs point to protracted negotiations and tactical maneuvers rather than swift resolutions or outright war.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 13 May 2025

Beyond binary scenarios for Iran-U.S. relations

A quiet realignment in the Middle East

A quiet realignment in the Middle East sees Tehran, Arab states, and Washington converge on de-escalation amid shared interests. As Iran's threat perception shifts, Arab diplomacy grows crucial, while the Trump administration's pragmatic approach offers a path for regional stability and cooperation.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 13 May 2025

Tehran’s endgame in nuclear talks with Washington

Tehran's cautious diplomacy signals a shift in U.S.-Iran relations, as President Pezeshkian seeks economic relief while avoiding past pitfalls.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 25 Apr 2025

Tehran’s endgame in nuclear talks with Washington

A new opening for the Levant

Recent shifts in the Levant signal a transformative geopolitical landscape, marked by Bashar Assad's fall and Gulf states normalizing ties with Syria and Lebanon. As Iran retreats, regional powers must seize this moment to foster stability and collaboration, avoiding past mistakes.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 29 Jan 2025

A digital collage of Middle Eastern and global political figures, including Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Donald Trump, Mohammed bin Zayed, Mohammed bin Salman, and others, standing on a chessboard.

Why Libya appears poised for change in 2025

Libya's trajectory in 2024 has been defined by a familiar narrative: a fractured nation grappling with the repercussions of a broken state, where elites compete over wealth and territorial control. The year ahead holds both the faintest glimmer of hope and the looming risk of renewed conflict.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 23 Dec 2024

Growing momentum for a new unified government in Libya

The recent Cairo meeting between Libya's HoR and HCS has sparked renewed hope for a unified government, gaining support from various stakeholders. As Misrata pushes for political reconciliation, the UN emphasizes an inclusive electoral process, while distrust remains towards the current leadership.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 2 Aug 2024

Why the United States is stepping up engagement in a fragile Libya

A U.S. delegation, led by AFRICOM leaders, engaged with key Libyan figures to enhance counterterrorism and military collaboration, aiming to counter Russian influence. As Libya's political landscape shifts, the U.S. seeks strategic partnerships to address complex security challenges.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 24 Jul 2024

Unpacking future scenarios for Libya’s political process

Libya could be facing three possible scenarios in the coming weeks, depending on whether it manages to achieve a breakthrough in its political process or whether it goes towards less promising paths.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 9 Jul 2024