Defense & Security - The Geopolitical Desk (Page 6)

Washington’s evolving policy and the tribal balance in northeast Syria

With the overthrow of Bashar al‑Assad on December 8, 2024, the diplomatic cards in Syria have been completely reshuffled, ushering in a new phase of uncertainty and opportunity. In this context, the United States is subtly but significantly recalibrating its posture in northeast Syria.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 17 Jul 2025

Washington’s evolving policy and the tribal balance in northeast Syria

Who will strike first in the standoff between the Libyan government and a Tripoli militia?

Government of National Unity (GNU) Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba now likely feels confident enough to fight the Rada Special Deterrence Forces in Tripoli, but wants Rada to make the first move.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 14 Jul 2025

The new scramble for the Mediterranean

With Turkish claims in the eastern Mediterranean expected to be approved by the Libyan House of Representatives, Athens is looking for a response.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 2 Jul 2025

Did Iran's military strike a new status quo or get knocked-out?

Despite sustaining major damage in its recent conflict with Israel, Iran played its weak card well and is now seeking to reinforce deterrence and preserve regime survival.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 1 Jul 2025

Did Iran's military strike a new status quo or get knocked-out?

Tripoli remains in suspense as tensions continue

Prime Minister Dabaiba continues to hold the capital in suspense as he slowly tries to gain an advantage over Rada without invoking a reaction

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 1 Jul 2025

Assessing the risks of state collapse in Iran

State collapse in Iran may not be the most likely outcome of the current war with Israel, but U.S. involvement and attempts at regime change could lead this way, thus triggering serious regional instability.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 24 Jun 2025

Assessing the risks of state collapse in Iran

Can regional war be averted as Iran-Israel conflict risks escalation?

Diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis are ongoing, with the United States setting a two-week timeframe. Yet, mistrust and the continued escalation of attacks risk expanding the conflict.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 20 Jun 2025

Israel’s strike on Iran and what comes next

Israel’s latest strike on Iran marks a sharp escalation, killing key military commanders and damaging strategic assets. Iran’s response is unfolding in stages, aiming to restore deterrence without triggering full-scale war. This article considers the strategic implications and regional risks ahead.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 13 Jun 2025

Israel’s strike on Iran and what comes next

Libya-Tunisia border crisis risks sparking wider conflict

The situation at the Ras Ajdir border crossing remains western Libya’s most dangerous fault line with serious risks of escalating.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 1 Jul 2024

Who's behind the new migration route between Libya and Nicaragua?

After conducting site visits and interviews with officials, diplomats, airport personnel, and security actors in both western and eastern Libya, our team has uncovered exclusive details about a new migration route that could be backed by a foreign actor to create disruptions ahead of U.S. elections.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 11 Jun 2024

Renewal of EU's Operation Irini reflects international divide over Libya

Launched in March 2020 by the EU's Foreign Affairs Council and in response to recommendations from the Berlin Conference on Libya, Operation Irini aims to enforce arms embargo decisions following the armed conflict in Libya.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 5 Jun 2024

Is Libya pursuing greater energy engagement with China and Russia?

There have been a number of reports emerging regarding non-Western International Oil Corporations being in direct contact with Benghazi-based authorities to develop the region’s vast energy resources.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 30 May 2024