When António Guterres of Portugal leaves office on December 31, completing his second five-year term, his successor will take over a smaller and poorer United Nations. In the midst of structural and financial reform, the organisation’s 2026 regular budget was cut by 7 percent compared to 2025, some 2,900 posts have been abolished, and peacekeeping funding for 2026-27 fell 10 percent.
The U.S., the largest contributor, owes close to $4 billion in dues under an administration overtly hostile to multilateralism, contributing to what Guterres earlier this year described as the organisation’s “imminent financial collapse.”
While member states have since taken some measures to alleviate the cash crunch, geopolitical tensions among major powers continue to hobble the organisation’s response to a cascade of crises. In the Security Council, in particular, those differences have blocked meaningful action to address the wars that dominate the global agenda, from Ukraine and Sudan to Gaza and the U.S.-Iran conflict.
That makes the choice of the next Secretary-General unusually consequential. The race will decide who carries on both the reform agenda and attempts to restore the UN’s peacemaking credibility amid tighter financial and political constraints. It will also determine whether the organisation gets its first woman leader after 80 years of existence. All of this will show, as one former UN diplomat put it, “what kind of UN” the major powers “are still prepared to tolerate.”
Time is starting to run low. In 2006 and 2016, the Security Council effectively settled the race in early October, when it held its decisive color-coded ballot, showing whether any of the veto-wielding permanent members objected to a candidate. This year it has yet to hold one. Guterres does not intend to stay on in an interim role in the case of deadlock, and Washington reportedly does not want him to, risking a leadership vacuum at a critical moment for the world body.
How the choice is made
Under Article 97 of the UN Charter, the General Assembly appoints the Secretary-General “upon the recommendation of the Security Council.” That recommendation requires at least nine favourable votes from the Council’s 15 members and no negative vote from the five permanent ones (P5): China, France, Russia, the UK, and the U.S.
Members first hold secret straw polls, marking each candidate “encouraged,” “discouraged,” or “no opinion.” In later rounds, the P5 then vote on coloured paper, revealing likely vetoes. Once agreement is reached, the Security Council adopts a resolution formally making its recommendation. The General Assembly has never rejected the Council’s choice, and the Council has never offered it more than one name.
