This article was developed in partnership with Munder Shuhumi, CEO of Pearls Capital and Advisory Board member of ICON Asset Management. With over two decades of experience across global finance, including senior roles at Goldman Sachs, Man Group, and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, he advises on market entry, risk and deal structuring.
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For decades, Libya has been described as an oil-rich country held back by politics, insecurity and underinvestment.
That diagnosis captures part of the truth, but it no longer fully explains the gap between Libya’s resource endowment and its economic outcomes, particularly as the country enters a new phase of upstream engagement.
The latest bid round, renewed IOC interest and a wave of official messaging around reform and energy transition have revived familiar questions about Libya’s oil future.
As we have explored elsewhere, the sector today sits uncomfortably between ambition and reality, with strategic goals outpacing the institutional capacity needed to deliver them, and offering high-risk, high-reward exposure for investors willing to navigate that structural uncertainty.
What these debates often miss, however, is a more fundamental constraint.
In a benchmark-priced global oil market, Libya’s challenge is no longer about geology, access, or even investor appetite. It is about whether the country’s governance and operating model can convert renewed activity into durable economic value.
In this context, a comparison with Norway helps clarify what is actually hampering Libya’s oil sector today.
This article synthesises the findings of a new GPD report comparing Libya and Norway’s petroleum governance models, cost structures and value conversion pathways.
The full report, including datasets and simulations, is available to download for subscribers at the end of this article.
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Why yesterday’s oil logic no longer applies today
Libya’s petroleum institutions were built for a different global oil market.
During the concession era of the 1950s and 1960s, oil pricing was opaque, dominated by vertically integrated international oil companies, and anchored to posted prices rather than transparent benchmarks.
Control over subsurface data, shipping and offtake mattered more than operational efficiency.
That world no longer exists.
