Archive

Israel may be preparing to annex parts of southern Lebanon

/ 17 Mar 2026

Power struggle inside Trump’s foreign policy team as Witkoff eyes North Africa

U.S. officials are discussing transferring the North Africa portfolio from Massad Boulos to Trump confidant Steve Witkoff as Washington grows frustrated with stalled diplomacy across Libya, Sudan and the Morocco-Algeria dispute, according to multiple American and regional sources.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 17 Mar 2026

Power struggle inside Trump’s foreign policy team as Witkoff eyes North Africa

Trump’s ill-planned war is breaking his coalition

The President has walked himself into a new quagmire, but even if he finds a way to extract himself soon, the war will damage his party for the rest of his term.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 13 Mar 2026

Trump’s ill-planned war is breaking his coalition

Khamenei is dead, long live Khamenei: Iran’s regime after wartime succession

The death of Ali Khamenei was expected to shake the Islamic Republic. Instead, Iran’s wartime succession and the rise of Mojtaba Khamenei reveal a regime that remains cohesive under pressure. National mobilisation, institutional loyalty and war dynamics may reinforce rather than weaken the system.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 9 Mar 2026

Khamenei is dead, long live Khamenei: Iran’s regime after wartime succession

The limits of U.S. energy independence and the upstream risks of escalation in Iran

U.S. military escalation against Iran is reshaping energy geopolitics and exposing new risks for oil and gas investors across the Middle East. From Iraq and Syria to the Eastern Mediterranean, upstream opportunities created by geopolitics may prove far less stable than they appear.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 9 Mar 2026

The limits of U.S. energy independence and the upstream risks of escalation in Iran

What are the conditions for a ceasefire in the U.S.–Israel war on Iran?

Despite intensifying strikes, the Iran war may still move toward a ceasefire. Energy market pressure, Gulf diplomacy, Iranian missile capabilities, succession politics in Tehran and Washington’s strategic choices will determine whether the conflict widens or stabilises.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 8 Mar 2026

What are the conditions for a ceasefire in the U.S.–Israel war on Iran?

Iran’s escalation scenarios: how the war could disrupt oil, shipping and global aviation

The war on Iran is entering a dangerous phase. From disruption in the Strait of Hormuz to potential attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure and aviation hubs, several scenarios could shake global oil markets, shipping routes and regional security across West Asia.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 7 Mar 2026

Iran’s escalation scenarios: how the war could disrupt oil, shipping and global aviation

Why escalation may be Iran’s only working strategy

While the U.S. and Israel have a dizzying array of strategic goals, ranging from Iran’s military weakening, change within the regime and regime change, Iran simultaneously follows two broad approaches which aim at forcing the U.S. to throw in the towel and allowing the Islamic Republic to survive.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 7 Mar 2026

Why escalation may be Iran’s only working strategy

Modern warfare in Tehran: is the air campaign working?

U.S. and Israeli strikes are degrading Iran’s missile launchers and military infrastructure, but intelligence gaps, rising civilian casualties and uncertain missile stockpiles raise questions about how durable the campaign’s gains will be.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 7 Mar 2026

Modern warfare in Tehran: is the air campaign working?

Is the Libyan National Army drifting westwards?

Just two years ago, the Libyan National Army (LNA) was widely treated as an international pariah. Western capitals explored ways to weaken it and diplomatic engagement was limited. Today, that picture looks increasingly outdated.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 6 Mar 2026