Archive

Did Iran's military strike a new status quo or get knocked-out?

Despite sustaining major damage in its recent conflict with Israel, Iran played its weak card well and is now seeking to reinforce deterrence and preserve regime survival.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 1 Jul 2025

Did Iran's military strike a new status quo or get knocked-out?

Tripoli remains in suspense as tensions continue

Prime Minister Dabaiba continues to hold the capital in suspense as he slowly tries to gain an advantage over Rada without invoking a reaction

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 1 Jul 2025

Iranian politics between tracking “domestic traitors” and crystallising unity

Amid mass arrests and a sweeping search for internal enemies, Iran’s leadership is doubling down on national unity. With questions swirling around succession and the regime’s survival instincts, this piece explores how Iran is managing post-conflict uncertainty.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 1 Jul 2025

Iranian politics between tracking “domestic traitors” and crystallising unity

Playing a weaker hand? Iran's strategic recalibration for nuclear talks

Tehran is weighing diplomacy against strategic ambiguity, seeking to revive nuclear negotiations, rally the Global South and preserve regime survival without surrendering core redlines.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 30 Jun 2025

Assessing the risks of state collapse in Iran

State collapse in Iran may not be the most likely outcome of the current war with Israel, but U.S. involvement and attempts at regime change could lead this way, thus triggering serious regional instability.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 24 Jun 2025

Assessing the risks of state collapse in Iran

Can regional war be averted as Iran-Israel conflict risks escalation?

Diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis are ongoing, with the United States setting a two-week timeframe. Yet, mistrust and the continued escalation of attacks risk expanding the conflict.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 20 Jun 2025

Scenarios shaping the future of the Israel-Iran conflict

Neither Israel nor the U.S. strategic objectives are set in stone and will continue to oscillate between neutering what they perceive as Iranian threats or pursuing regime change. This creates a highly volatile environment.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 17 Jun 2025

Israel’s strike on Iran and what comes next

Israel’s latest strike on Iran marks a sharp escalation, killing key military commanders and damaging strategic assets. Iran’s response is unfolding in stages, aiming to restore deterrence without triggering full-scale war. This article considers the strategic implications and regional risks ahead.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 13 Jun 2025

Israel’s strike on Iran and what comes next

Saddam Haftar's breakthroughs with Turkey and the U.S.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 14 May 2025

Saddam Haftar's breakthroughs with Turkey and the U.S.

Beyond binary scenarios for Iran-U.S. relations

Trump's "deal or kneel" rhetoric frames Iran's future as a stark choice: compliance or chaos. Yet, all signs point to protracted negotiations and tactical maneuvers rather than swift resolutions or outright war.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 13 May 2025

Beyond binary scenarios for Iran-U.S. relations

A quiet realignment in the Middle East

A quiet realignment in the Middle East sees Tehran, Arab states, and Washington converge on de-escalation amid shared interests. As Iran's threat perception shifts, Arab diplomacy grows crucial, while the Trump administration's pragmatic approach offers a path for regional stability and cooperation.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 13 May 2025

Why Algeria pulled the plug on its mega-port dream

The cancellation of Algeria's El Hamdania mega-port highlights the struggle between political stability and sustainable growth, risking regional isolation and investor confidence amid a looming fiscal crisis.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 7 May 2025