Although the overall situation seems to be stable with Libya overtaking Nigeria as Africa’s largest oil producer for two consecutive months, some key obstacles and risks continue to threaten Libya’s oil and gas infrastructure. Some of these risks and obstacles include the following:
- Limited reporting: There have been no reported attacks or disruptions directly targeting oil and gas infrastructure in the last 30 days. However, the limited availability of reliable information from some regions remains a concern. The western coastal area and the southwest in particular remain at greater risk of disruptions due to various reasons. Local tensions and movements in these areas continue to brew under the surface and require constant attention and extra effort to stay updated with daily developments there.
- Geopolitical tensions: The recent escalation of Russian military involvement in Libya, including the delivery of arms and the formation of the Africa Legion, raises concerns about potential spillover effects and increased instability in the country. This could indirectly create an environment more conducive to attacks on oil and gas infrastructure. The more pronounced official Russian presence on the ground could mark the beginning of a new geopolitical reality unfolding in Libya by which eastern and southern Libya become under direct official military influence and protection, while western Libya is under direct and official NATO protection.
- Social unrest: Persistent economic hardship and ongoing political uncertainty in Libya could lead to social unrest, potentially leading to protests or disruptions that could affect oil and gas operations. Fuel shortages, higher prices and liquidity problems are all factors that could lead people to participate in protests, civil disobedience and boycott activities.