Since 2022, the Saudis have been signaling disengagement from both their military campaign in Yemen and their “cold war” competition with Iran, opting instead to lean back on traditional soft power and economic investment strategies.
When the Southern Transitional Council (STC) rapidly seized control of South Yemen from the Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), The Geopolitical Desk assessed that Riyadh would look to disengage from the crisis on the southern Arabian Peninsula, after years of costly conflict with no clear exit. That assessment proved incorrect. Yemen emerged as a red line for Saudi Arabia, prompting not withdrawal, but a swift reversal of Saudi strategy.
The long-simmering tensions between them and the United Arab Emirates had finally come to the surface, and instead of retreating, the Saudis decided to go on the offensive. Yet Saudi Arabia’s original problem remains. There is no clear way out of Yemen, and the country will likely return to managing a problem rather than solving it.
Pulling Up Roots
The STC’s rapid capture of all of southern Yemen shocked much of the region, and the Saudis were forced to make a decision quickly. Instead of waiting for the STC to establish itself, they launched a rapid dual military and diplomatic response.
The Saudis immediately signaled their frustration with the UAE, launching an airstrike on an Emirati weapons shipment in the STC-controlled southern port of Mukalla. They also demanded that Emirati forces leave the country, a demand the UAE complied with, even withdrawing from the strategically important island of Socotra, which it had controlled and invested in for years through the STC.
