United States President Donald Trump has continued to stress that his war with Iran is a success. In multiple media stunts and statements on his social media website, he continues to hammer how the U.S. is strong and powerful again. But despite the bravado, Trump has admitted that they have not “won enough" yet.
The administration, normally risk averse, has stumbled into a crisis of its own making. Trump ultimately took a gamble, believing that a decapitation strike against Iran would somehow either bring change within the Islamic Republic leading it to accept an unfavourable deal, possibly produce regime change along pro-Western lines, or simply provoke no military response at all.
Tehran instead decided to drag the war into the region, and damage the one thing Trump prides himself on: the economy.
For now, neither side appears willing to back down, but even if Trump manages to pull back, the damage domestically has already been done. The coalition that he had built to bring him back to the White House has long been fissuring, but this war is now tearing it in ways that will be difficult to repair.
A clumsy mess
It is clear that the Trump administration had no detailed plan for a war with Iran. The reasons for the offensive have constantly shifted, with officials saying it was to pre-empt an Iranian attack, then to pre-empt the consequences of an Israeli attack on Iran.
The administration appeared to have put their faith in the possibility a decapitation strike would invoke some protest movement, or spur an imaginary cooperative IRGC commander to take over the government.
And if this failed, the U.S. government thought that Iran’s gradually weakening regional position would force Tehran to quickly capitulate to the U.S. Air Force and Navy’s sheer firepower and to submit to a comprehensive deal dismantling its nuclear, missile and regional proxy capabilities.
Israel shares the U.S. strategic confusion, but it has far stronger incentives and commitment to harm its archrival by expanding the number of targets, including Tehran’s oil reserves, in a move that caught the U.S. off guard. If Israeli officials cannot bring about a friendly regime in Tehran, they believe they can at least inflict as much pain as possible to push the Iranian state toward eventual collapse.
Apart from tactical successes like key decapitations and heavy strikes on military assets, the offensive’s strategic goals have not been achieved.The Islamic Republic coalesced around itself with the appointment of Ali Khamenei's son Mojtaba, and the IRGC activated their decades-long preparations for a regional war with the U.S. The long dreaded nightmare scenario of the Strait of Hormuz closing became true.
Believing that a short “shock and awe” campaign would give him a quick win, Trump walked himself into a crisis with no politically sound exit. While continuing the war proves increasingly costly, suddenly cutting it short by announcing “Mission Accomplished” does not yet seem possible. U.S. global standing would take a major hit, Israel may not simultaneously cease operations, and Tehran hasn't signalled this would necessarily end hostilities.
