When President Trump’s close ally Thomas J. “Tom” Barrack was confirmed in spring 2025 as U.S. ambassador to Türkiye and handed an extra portfolio as special envoy for Syria, few expected him to become the linchpin of an audacious U.S. push in the Levant.
Yet by mid-2025 Barrack had been dispatched to Beirut with a simple but maximalist brief: help crystallize Israel’s battlefield gains into political concessions from Lebanon, promote normalisation with Damascus and Beirut, and press for the disarmament of Hezbollah by year-end.
The problem is twofold. The brief is politically unrealistic, and Barrack’s style and background make him a poor fit for its execution.
Mission Implausible
Barrack, an atypical diplomat, has been at the centre of controversies right from the moment of his appointment. His blunt speech, constant flip-flopping on his policy and transactional logic have angered all the regional stakeholders, making them wary of the U.S' stance in the Middle-East.
A day after Israel began its bombing campaign in Gaza on the 7th of October 2023, Hezbollah began firing rockets at Israel. By the time a U.S brokered ceasefire agreement between the two sides took effect on the 27th of November 2024 Hezbollah had lost a lot of its capabilities and has since been a shadow of its former self.
This is seen by the Americans and Israelis as a cue for them to completely put Hezbollah – the military organisation – out of commission by disarming it and limiting it solely to a limited political entity.
With a major Iran ally back in the hut and the Lebanese population free from Hezbollah’s exhaustive control, a new dawn for Lebanon, with Israel as its friend, is envisioned by the U.S.
Additionally, though doubts over the degrees of warmth between Damascus and Tel Aviv persist, a general perception pointing towards an agreement of some kind is prevalent.
Syria’s Ahmed al-Sharaa claiming that direct talks with Israel were already underway only emboldens that sentiment despite Israeli reticence toward the new Syrian government.
Against this backdrop Barrack and the U.S assumed that the entry of two new states into the Abraham Accords was imminent.
However, this oversimplification of regional dynamics and flouting of diplomatic fundamentals in the Middle East has put Lebanon's stability and the United States' regional policy at risk.
Mission Implausible 2: Rogue Nation
The demand for disarmament of Hezbollah has two main issues: the first is rush and the second is a lack of assurances.
