In roughly a month, by mid-March, the United States is expected to have amassed sufficient military assets to conduct a large, multi-week campaign against Iran. By that point, Tehran’s latest diplomatic proposals will have been submitted and, in Washington’s view, deemed unsatisfactory. The trajectory suggests that the window for diplomacy is narrowing just as the military option becomes fully operational.
State Secretary Marco Rubio is scheduled to be in Israel on February 28, a visit widely expected to focus on coordination regarding Iran. Regional actors, once invested in de-escalation efforts, are seeing diminishing returns from shuttle diplomacy and mediation attempts.
The regional appetite for compromise appears to be fading in parallel with the rise in military preparations. Regional countries understand the volatile implications of conflict, but also know that the prolonged risk of being singled out by Iran following a U.S. attack cannot be sustained eternally and should be eventually tackled with one’s own kinetic capabilities.
The contrast is stark: frail talks on one side, mounting force posture on the other. From the hollowness of negotiations to the steady accumulation of U.S. assets, the momentum increasingly favours military action. What remains unclear is not whether force will be used, but when and in what form.
