The current crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, escalated by the military strikes of February 2026, has exposed a profound structural vulnerability in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations.
While these states are often classified as "food secure" due to their immense purchasing power, this security is built upon a fragile foundation of extreme import dependency and a hyper-optimised, "just-in-time" global supply chain.
The effective closure of the Strait does more than just threaten the flow of oil; it has paralysed the global fertiliser market, creating a "mid-term" food security crisis that will likely peak between late 2026 and early 2027.
