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The fertiliser paradox: Geopolitical chokepoints and Gulf food security

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz impacts more than just oil. The Gulf is struggling to export fertiliser and import food, creating a worsening cycle.

Tags: Partner Insight Politics & Governance Israel-Iran-US War
The fertiliser paradox: Geopolitical chokepoints and Gulf food security
Partner Insight

This article was developed in partnership with Salem Maiar, a London-based consultant and author specialising in Libyan natural resources, environmental sustainability and geopolitics. He writes and advises about topics such as oil exploration, water security, and the Great Man-Made River project.

For information on partnership opportunities or expert features on The Geopolitical Desk, get in touch.

The current crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, escalated by the military strikes of February 2026, has exposed a profound structural vulnerability in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations.

While these states are often classified as "food secure" due to their immense purchasing power, this security is built upon a fragile foundation of extreme import dependency and a hyper-optimised, "just-in-time" global supply chain. 

The effective closure of the Strait does more than just threaten the flow of oil; it has paralysed the global fertiliser market, creating a "mid-term" food security crisis that will likely peak between late 2026 and early 2027.  

The double-edged sword of fertiliser dominance

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