West Asia - The Geopolitical Desk (Page 2)

What are the conditions for a ceasefire in the U.S.–Israel war on Iran?

Despite intensifying strikes, the Iran war may still move toward a ceasefire. Energy market pressure, Gulf diplomacy, Iranian missile capabilities, succession politics in Tehran and Washington’s strategic choices will determine whether the conflict widens or stabilises.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 8 Mar 2026

What are the conditions for a ceasefire in the U.S.–Israel war on Iran?

Iran’s escalation scenarios: how the war could disrupt oil, shipping and global aviation

The war on Iran is entering a dangerous phase. From disruption in the Strait of Hormuz to potential attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure and aviation hubs, several scenarios could shake global oil markets, shipping routes and regional security across West Asia.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 7 Mar 2026

Iran’s escalation scenarios: how the war could disrupt oil, shipping and global aviation

Why escalation may be Iran’s only working strategy

While the U.S. and Israel have a dizzying array of strategic goals, ranging from Iran’s military weakening, change within the regime and regime change, Iran simultaneously follows two broad approaches which aim at forcing the U.S. to throw in the towel and allowing the Islamic Republic to survive.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 7 Mar 2026

Why escalation may be Iran’s only working strategy

Modern warfare in Tehran: is the air campaign working?

U.S. and Israeli strikes are degrading Iran’s missile launchers and military infrastructure, but intelligence gaps, rising civilian casualties and uncertain missile stockpiles raise questions about how durable the campaign’s gains will be.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 7 Mar 2026

Modern warfare in Tehran: is the air campaign working?

Will new regional instability give rise to ISIS?

Drone activity, jihadist fractures and regional escalation are all creating a hostile environment that could see the rebirth of ISIS.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 5 Mar 2026

Will new regional instability give rise to ISIS?

Who rules Iran after Khamenei? Succession scenarios explained

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 3 Mar 2026

Who rules Iran after Khamenei? Succession scenarios explained

Strait of Hormuz at risk: escalation scenarios in the U.S.–Israel war on Iran

Strikes near Kuwait and Dubai, U.S. casualties, and threats to Gulf energy routes signal a dangerous widening of the U.S.–Israel war on Iran. From Strait of Hormuz disruption to oil price shock and regional proxy escalation, the conflict is testing worst-case scenarios.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 2 Mar 2026

Regional diplomacy fails and escalation paths multiply after U.S.-Israel strike Iran

A coordinated Arab and Gulf diplomatic push failed to stop U.S. alignment with Israel’s war on Iran. With escalation underway, scenarios now range from short, high-intensity strikes to a prolonged regional conflict. The risk of state collapse and energy market shock is no longer theoretical.

By The Geopolitical Desk

/ 28 Feb 2026