The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz impacts more than just oil. The Gulf is struggling to export fertiliser and import food, creating a worsening cycle.
This report covers political and security updates in Libya between March 20, 2026 and March 26, 2026. Clients can download the full report at the end of the page.
Decades of effort went into building the case for a U.S. war with Iran, and now it has finally arrived. But for Washington’s think tanks and policy circles, it is not what they had in mind.
As American and Israeli strikes reshape Iran’s military landscape, a parallel campaign is unfolding on screens and in exile capitals: the promise of a picture-perfect tomorrow.
This report covers political and security updates in Libya between March 13, 2026 and March 19, 2026. Clients can download the full report at the end of the page.
This report covers political and security updates in Libya between March 6, 2025 - March 12, 2026. Clients can download the full report at the end of the page.
The President has walked himself into a new quagmire, but even if he finds a way to extract himself soon, the war will damage his party for the rest of his term.
The death of Ali Khamenei was expected to shake the Islamic Republic. Instead, Iran’s wartime succession and the rise of Mojtaba Khamenei reveal a regime that remains cohesive under pressure. National mobilisation, institutional loyalty and war dynamics may reinforce rather than weaken the system.
Despite intensifying strikes, the Iran war may still move toward a ceasefire. Energy market pressure, Gulf diplomacy, Iranian missile capabilities, succession politics in Tehran and Washington’s strategic choices will determine whether the conflict widens or stabilises.
The war on Iran is entering a dangerous phase. From disruption in the Strait of Hormuz to potential attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure and aviation hubs, several scenarios could shake global oil markets, shipping routes and regional security across West Asia.
While the U.S. and Israel have a dizzying array of strategic goals, ranging from Iran’s military weakening, change within the regime and regime change, Iran simultaneously follows two broad approaches which aim at forcing the U.S. to throw in the towel and allowing the Islamic Republic to survive.
U.S. and Israeli strikes are degrading Iran’s missile launchers and military infrastructure, but intelligence gaps, rising civilian casualties and uncertain missile stockpiles raise questions about how durable the campaign’s gains will be.
