Recent reports of Russian arms deliveries to Libya via Tobruk's port have sparked a flurry of speculation and raised serious concerns about Russia's growing involvement in the Libyan conflict.
Primarily focused on the energy and migration files, Giorgia Meloni’s Italian government has pursued a pragmatic approach toward Libya, whereby any interlocutor is appreciated as long as they can satisfy Italian interests.
Both Egypt and Turkey are determined to open a new chapter in their relations and act in cooperation on several files instead of seeing one another as rivals. This diplomatic trend opens new avenues for Libya and its accentuation throughout 2024 is likely to impact domestic politics.
With every passing week, western Libya increasingly demonstrates how unsustainable the status quo is, as the facade of stability hangs on a thread.
This time, Gaddafi's comeback seems to have a military dimension to it, along with an impressive social component that makes this attempt considerably more compelling than any of his past failed attempts.
Slowly but surely, Libya seems to be creeping closer towards becoming the next competing ground for the U.S.-Russia rivalry.
As explained in this week’s Political Risk report, Libyans did not enjoy this year’s Eid al-Fitr as a result of the piling economic issues such as the liquidity
For close to three weeks, southern Libyan protesters managed to block production at the country’s largest oilfield, al-Sharara, thus dropping overall crude production by 20% to 950,000 barrels per day.
The 2022 Audit Bureau report highlights the problem of smuggling subsidised fuel, costing Libya about 5 billion USD annually. Libya exchanges crude oil for fuel without proper oversight, making it challenging to track fuel purchases and smuggling.
The geopolitical ramifications of the Israeli Defence Forces’ (IDF) war on the Gaza strip following Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel are also to be found in Libya and could impact the country’s foreign relations as well as its internal conflict dynamics.
Following Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death, a cloud of uncertainty was cast on the group’s operations in North Africa. However, recent events are starting to provide a glimpse into the potential ramifications that Wagner’s presence in Libya could have on the country’s oil and gas sector.
The Libyan authorities are preparing for a new round of oil and gas licences in 2024 after a hiatus of over 17 years. However, comprehensive maps for untapped gas regions have not been drawn up yet.
