To revive Libya’s political process, the Deputy Special Representative to the Secretary-General (DSRSG) of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) will have to be careful about several factors that could harm her mandate and help the country’s status quo thrive.
Tehran has now placed Africa among its top foreign policy priorities, seeking more trade flows, geopolitical alignment, and military cooperation.
Primarily focused on the energy and migration files, Giorgia Meloni’s Italian government has pursued a pragmatic approach toward Libya, whereby any interlocutor is appreciated as long as they can satisfy Italian interests.
Both Egypt and Turkey are determined to open a new chapter in their relations and act in cooperation on several files instead of seeing one another as rivals. This diplomatic trend opens new avenues for Libya and its accentuation throughout 2024 is likely to impact domestic politics.
Slowly but surely, Libya seems to be creeping closer towards becoming the next competing ground for the U.S.-Russia rivalry.
The geopolitical ramifications of the Israeli Defence Forces’ (IDF) war on the Gaza strip following Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel are also to be found in Libya and could impact the country’s foreign relations as well as its internal conflict dynamics.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s re-election is dampening hope for an overhaul of regional geopolitics, but could give way to gradual improvements in countries like Libya.
