Recent shifts in the Levant signal a transformative geopolitical landscape, marked by Bashar Assad's fall and Gulf states normalizing ties with Syria and Lebanon. As Iran retreats, regional powers must seize this moment to foster stability and collaboration, avoiding past mistakes.
Libya's trajectory in 2024 has been defined by a familiar narrative: a fractured nation grappling with the repercussions of a broken state, where elites compete over wealth and territorial control. The year ahead holds both the faintest glimmer of hope and the looming risk of renewed conflict.
The recent Cairo meeting between Libya's HoR and HCS has sparked renewed hope for a unified government, gaining support from various stakeholders. As Misrata pushes for political reconciliation, the UN emphasizes an inclusive electoral process, while distrust remains towards the current leadership.
A U.S. delegation, led by AFRICOM leaders, engaged with key Libyan figures to enhance counterterrorism and military collaboration, aiming to counter Russian influence. As Libya's political landscape shifts, the U.S. seeks strategic partnerships to address complex security challenges.
Libya could be facing three possible scenarios in the coming weeks, depending on whether it manages to achieve a breakthrough in its political process or whether it goes towards less promising paths.
Launched in March 2020 by the EU's Foreign Affairs Council and in response to recommendations from the Berlin Conference on Libya, Operation Irini aims to enforce arms embargo decisions following the armed conflict in Libya.
Despite the High National Elections Commission's (HNEC) preparations, a combination of financial hurdles, political infighting, and security concerns is casting a shadow over the electoral process.
To revive Libya’s political process, the Deputy Special Representative to the Secretary-General (DSRSG) of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) will have to be careful about several factors that could harm her mandate and help the country’s status quo thrive.
Primarily focused on the energy and migration files, Giorgia Meloni’s Italian government has pursued a pragmatic approach toward Libya, whereby any interlocutor is appreciated as long as they can satisfy Italian interests.
