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DEFENSE & SECURITY

No-nonsense analysis on conflict zones, armed groups, foreign military activity, and security sector shifts across volatile theatres.

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The new scramble for the Mediterranean
The new scramble for the Mediterranean

With Turkish claims in the eastern Mediterranean expected to be approved by the Libyan House of Representatives, Athens is looking for a response.

NORTH AFRICA DESK   -   Jul 02, 2025
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Did Iran's military strike a new status quo or get knocked-out?
Did Iran's military strike a new status quo or get knocked-out?

Despite sustaining major damage in its recent conflict with Israel, Iran played its weak card well and is now seeking to reinforce deterrence and preserve regime survival.

IRAN DESK   -   Jul 01, 2025
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Assessing the risks of state collapse in Iran
Assessing the risks of state collapse in Iran

State collapse in Iran may not be the most likely outcome of the current war with Israel, but U.S. involvement and attempts at regime change could lead this way, thus triggering serious regional instability.

IRAN DESK   -   Jun 24, 2025
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Can regional war be averted as Iran-Israel conflict risks escalation?

Diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis are ongoing, with the United States setting a two-week timeframe. Yet, mistrust and the continued escalation of attacks risk expanding the conflict.

Jun 20, 2025
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Israel’s strike on Iran and what comes next
Israel’s strike on Iran and what comes next

Israel’s latest strike on Iran marks a sharp escalation, killing key military commanders and damaging strategic assets. Iran’s response is unfolding in stages, aiming to restore deterrence without triggering full-scale war. This article considers the strategic implications and regional risks ahead.

IRAN DESK   -   Jun 13, 2025
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Libya-Tunisia border crisis risks sparking wider conflict

The situation at the Ras Ajdir border crossing remains western Libya’s most dangerous fault line with serious risks of escalating.

LIBYA DESK   -   Jul 01, 2024
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Libya-Nicaragua: Who's behind the new migration route?

After conducting site visits and interviews with officials, diplomats, airport personnel, and security actors in both western and eastern Libya, our team has uncovered exclusive details about a new migration route that could be backed by a foreign actor to create disruptions ahead of U.S. elections.

LIBYA DESK   -   Jun 11, 2024
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Are eastern Libyan authorities pursuing greater energy engagement with China and Russia?

There have been a number of unconfirmed reports emerging regarding non-Western International Oil Corporations being in direct contact with Benghazi-based authorities to develop the region’s vast energy resources.

OIL & GAS   -   May 30, 2024
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