Libya Energy Insights (October 2025)

This report provides analysis and insights into Libya's energy sector for the month of October, 2025

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Market Outlook

October was cautiously positive for Libya’s energy sector observers. Operationally, the NOC showed resilience, keeping production steady and reactivating long-idle assets despite persistent governance gaps.

Foreign operators visibly renewed engagement, suggesting gradual upstream confidence ahead of next year’s bidding round contract awards.

However, fiscal and structural weaknesses—particularly the unsustainable subsidy regime—continue to cast doubt on long-term viability.

Key Highlights

  • Upstream Resilience: New discoveries by OMV in the Sirte Basin and resumed drilling by Sonatrach and Eni signal rising confidence among foreign partners.
  • Strategic Engagement: The NOC intensified outreach to Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Halliburton, seeking U.S. and Turkish investment in exploration, renewables, and technology transfer.
  • Fiscal Fragility: Oil revenues—79.4 billion LYD ($14.6 bn) over nine months—still account for over 90% of state income, underscoring exposure to output shocks.
  • Energy Transition Gap: Despite new institutional committees and isolated solar projects, renewables supply less than 1% of electricity; subsidies and liquidity constraints remain the main barriers.
  • Subsidy Burden: The 29.5 billion LYD spent on fuel subsidies this year dwarfs infrastructure spending, perpetuating inefficiency and deterring clean energy uptake.
  • Governance Weakness: Corruption probes—such as the Janzour depot scandal—highlight chronic operational opacity even in critical fuel supply chains.
  • Maritime Disputes: Tensions with Greece intensified after Athens granted offshore blocks to a Chevron–Hellenic Energy consortium, prompting Libyan protests at the UN. U.S. mediation efforts may materialise soon to appease parties such as Greece, Turkey, Egypt and Libya.

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