Iran war scenarios and global energy risks
This report draws on source inquiries and ongoing research conducted by our team into the Iran–Israel–U.S. conflict and its implications for global markets.
Published:
Last updated:
This brief addresses the following key questions:
- How wartime conditions are shaping Iran’s leadership succession and consolidating the security establishment.
- The effectiveness and limitations of the current air campaign against Iranian military infrastructure.
- Iran’s dual strategy of shock escalation and economic attrition, particularly through pressure on maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Scenario analysis for regional escalation, including risks to Gulf energy infrastructure, aviation hubs and maritime trade.
- Conditions under which a ceasefire could emerge, and why a prolonged period of volatile escalation remains the most likely trajectory.
The analysis draws on source inquiries and ongoing research conducted by our team across the region, and forms part of our broader monitoring of the Iran–Israel–U.S. conflict and its implications for global markets.
If you would like to discuss any of the findings or explore additional briefings on Iran, Gulf security dynamics or energy market risks, please feel free to reach out.
