Strategic insights from the world's most complex regions

With the overthrow of Bashar al‑Assad on December 8, 2024, the diplomatic cards in Syria have been completely reshuffled, ushering in a new phase of uncertainty and opportunity. In this context, the United States is subtly but significantly recalibrating its posture in northeast Syria.

The Libyan oil sector continues to develop critical infrastructure, but is ultimately hampered by growing budgetary challenges.

Prime Minister Dabaiba continues to hold the capital in suspense as he slowly tries to gain an advantage over Rada without invoking a reaction

Tehran is weighing diplomacy against strategic ambiguity, seeking to revive nuclear negotiations, rally the Global South and preserve regime survival without surrendering core redlines.

Diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis are ongoing, with the United States setting a two-week timeframe. Yet, mistrust and the continued escalation of attacks risk expanding the conflict.

Neither Israel nor the U.S. strategic objectives are set in stone and will continue to oscillate between neutering what they perceive as Iranian threats or pursuing regime change. This creates a highly volatile environment.

Israel’s latest strike on Iran marks a sharp escalation, killing key military commanders and damaging strategic assets. Iran’s response is unfolding in stages, aiming to restore deterrence without triggering full-scale war. This article considers the strategic implications and regional risks ahead.

Trump's "deal or kneel" rhetoric frames Iran's future as a stark choice: compliance or chaos. Yet, all signs point to protracted negotiations and tactical maneuvers rather than swift resolutions or outright war.

August has seen escalating crises in Libya, with a fuel blockade crippling oil production and political tensions rising amidst contested elections. The National Oil Corporation faces pressure as competing factions threaten stability, while UN efforts to mediate remain untested and uncertain.

Libya faces a precarious future after a Central Bank takeover and an oil blockade, igniting fears of potential conflict and further economic collapse. With key stakeholders divided, this article examines what happened and what's next for Libya.

A U.S. delegation, led by AFRICOM leaders, engaged with key Libyan figures to enhance counterterrorism and military collaboration, aiming to counter Russian influence. As Libya's political landscape shifts, the U.S. seeks strategic partnerships to address complex security challenges.

A second week of efforts to reach a peaceful solution to the ongoing tensions in Tripoli has failed. Neither of Libya’s rival groups have attempted serious reconciliation efforts until now, and within the past month, have depleted most mediators capable of helping.