This article is part of our ongoing coverage of the U.S.-Israel war on Iran.
We are tracking escalation pathways, energy market exposure, proxy mobilisation and leadership dynamics in real time.
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In tactical terms, the air campaign over Iran is highly effective.
This is without a surprise as Tehran had no short-term solution out of its air defence predicament and relies on yet too narrow “strategic ties” with Beijing and Moscow.
The Asian giants amplified their logistical help following the 12-day-war but never committed to significantly beefing up Iranian armed forces.
The latter not only have an idiosyncratic model that has made defence cooperation and procurement more difficult than necessary, but has also given generals the impossible task of finding the right balance between conventional and asymmetric capabilities.
A case in point is Iran’s navy, which despite focusing on asymmetric capabilities following the U.S. decimating its fleet in the 1980s, faced the same fate at the hands of America in 2026, with 30 vessels hit so far.
In peace, Iran certainly needed destroyers, frigates and corvettes to project power on the seas, but the fruits of this indigenous industry are for now mostly spoiled after just a week of attack by the U.S. Navy.
The latter understood the inherent weaknesses of Iran’s fleet and went as far as torpedoing IRIS Dena, an unarmed frigate coming back from a multinational naval exercise in India, to demonstrate its sheer firepower.
While the Ukraine-Russia conflict resurfaced the concept of “old war” and pushed states to rearm their conventional forces with a UAV component, the current war on Iran is the pinnacle of modern warfare, using AI and overwhelming targeted firepower.
An early decapitation wave has given way to a systematic hunt of Iran’s strike capabilities, reflecting U.S. priorities, and regalian state apparatus, reflecting a broader Israeli desire to crumble the Islamic Republic (IR).
The most critical question, not entirely answerable under the fog of war, is Iran’s remaining stockpile of missiles and more importantly launchers.
While attacking forces say they are close to decimating Iran’s strike force, Tehran leaves doubt as seen in the 12-day-war when its strike performance was V-shaped, using its more capable missiles by the end of the conflict.
Whether the current drop in Iranian launches will consistently rebound following the above-mentioned pattern is yet to be clear, but Tehran will continue to have tricks up its sleeve even when out of missiles that can target Israel.
Air strikes have pummeled the west of the country, hitting desert-area missile launchers, military factories or stockpiles in city outskirts, and law enforcement buildings in highly-dense urban settings.
