The Eastern Mediterranean maritime agreement has opened a new frontier for Libya’s offshore oil and gas prospects. While some assessments suggest the broader eastern Mediterranean could hold up to 107 billion barrels of oil and 122 trillion cubic meters of gas, only detailed exploration will confirm what portion—if any—lies within Libya’s claimed zone. The following scenarios outline how Libya’s economy could evolve over the next decade depending on whether these prospective resources materialise.
Scenario 1: Optimistic — Libya emerges as a Mediterranean gas power
In the optimistic case, Libya achieves political coordination between western and eastern authorities, creating a unified energy framework. This stability encourages sustained foreign investment, especially from Turkey and other regional partners willing to support deep-water exploration.
Major offshore discoveries
By 2028–2030, seismic surveys and exploratory wells reveal several commercially viable offshore fields. While not matching the extreme high-end figures for the entire Mediterranean, Libya’s zone still contains multi-trillion-cubic-foot (Tcf) natural gas reservoirs and hundreds of millions of barrels of offshore oil. These finds significantly boost Libya’s proven reserves.
Infrastructure revival and expansion
New investment flows into offshore platforms, subsea pipelines, and gas-processing facilities. Libya also begins upgrading its domestic grid and export terminals. International oil companies return with medium-risk confidence, and national production capacity steadily grows.
Gas becomes the star. Because global markets are shifting toward gas as a transition fuel, Libya signs long-term export contracts with southern Europe. Gas revenues diversify the economy away from heavy dependence on onshore crude, reducing vulnerability to oil-price volatility.
Economic transformation
By the early 2030s, Libya achieves:
