Libya in 2025 was somewhat of a traditional year for the country, experiencing long bouts of political malaise as well as heightened violence that almost saw the return of violent conflict.
Politics continue to be driven by competition over oil resources, legitimacy, and political power, which is sometimes negotiated through back room deals, and sometimes negotiated through force by armed groups.
The biggest difference this year was the growing evidence that Libya’s ruling elites, as well as the international community, are growing tired of the status quo.
For the past few years, it had been advantageous for all actors involved to keep Libya fragmented and its governance weak. Now, however, the increasing interest for the return of foreign investment and the growing egos of national politicians is pushing the country toward a new status quo.
While a year ago it would have been impossible to gauge what that new reality may look like, there is now far more clarity with four competing visions beginning to consolidate themselves in the Libyan political scene.
In the east, the Libyan National Army (LNA) under the Haftar family are now looking to expand their system to the entirety of the country, while in the west, the Government of National Unity (GNU) Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba is trying to create a future for him and his family, potentially at the expense of his allies and the GNU itself.
Outside of Libya, the United Nations once again are pushing a flawed process to create a fairer country, something no Libyan politician seems to be interested in, while the United States is now looking to secure material gains through whatever new political arrangement they may arrive at.
These visions are all somewhat in competition with one another, and 2026 will likely see increased political manoeuvring to try and set a new trajectory for the country.
Haftar and the Libyan National Army: Looking for expansion
Over the past two years, LNA Commander Khalifa Haftar has focused on concentrating power around his family as well as solidifying a division of authority among his children.
