Similarly to the Iran-Iraq war, this current conflict reinforces the Islamic Republic’s credentials. Despite heavy strikes on military, oil, and government assets by Israel, there is still no sign of a collapse of either the state or its security apparatus.
Instead, the regime has so far shown great resilience and adequate crisis management preparedness. There are fuel caps and shortages due to recent Israeli strikes on oil depots near Tehran, and foodstuff prices have skyrocketed even more with signs of lower supplies.
However, the government has shown it is pursuing contingency plans to remedy these supply issues, including activating war risk insurance and strengthening the sustainability of logistics networks.
The Islamic Republic’s resilience can be explained by a structure that has far more bottom-up aspects than outsiders may expect. It may be hierarchical but has never been unipolar, giving factions space to sustain an internal debate which, although viewed as not enough by plenty of Iranians, still offers swings between power centres.
At times of outside pressure, these poles all regroup around core values and central figures, mainly the supreme leader. At the lower-level, supporters of the Islamic Republic gladly rise to the occasion as they genuinely feel like participants in the political system. Their mobilisation is not primarily motivated by fear of losing status or any meagre material belongings, but rather by a deep sense of duty and the need to protect a system that gives them identity and purpose.
