‣ 🇷🇺 Why Moscow continues to defend its nuclear and defence industrial base.
‣ 🇱🇾 The competing visions and political fault lines shaping next year’s outcomes in Libya.
As the saying goes, the road to hell is paved with good intentions. In the case of the stories we're featuring this week, good intentions and contesting visions for the future.
Despite unprecedented Western sanctions on Russia aimed at crippling its economy and isolating it on the world stage, the Kremlin is protecting core sectors — particularly nuclear energy and defence exports — as pillars of its global influence and economic resilience.
In North Africa, Libya’s political trajectory remains unresolved, with competing visions for 2026 shaping how local powerbrokers, external patrons and international mediators interact — and raising real questions about who will write the next chapter.
Both cases illustrate how we are increasingly living in a multipolar world order, where countries and individual powerbrokers are incentivised to pursue their own strategic interests while eschewing the basic tenets of multilateralism.
Now let’s get into it.
— Oliver, Co-Founder of GPD
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🇷🇺 The strategic sectors Russia won’t surrender
What happened: In November, Rosatom inaugurated Unit 1 of Egypt’s first nuclear power plant with both Cairo’s and Moscow’s leaders participating virtually, demonstrating continuity in nuclear-tech cooperation. At the Dubai Airshow, Russian defence giant Rostec showcased high-end military systems to an international audience, underlining that sanctions have not eclipsed its role as a major arms supplier. These events signal Moscow’s continued prioritisation of sectors it deems “too strategic to yield,” even under concerted Western economic pressure.
Why it matters: Western sanctions have hit the Russian economy hard — diminishing oil revenues, complicating access to technology and squeezing financial markets. But sectors embedded in long-term state strategy and geopolitical signalling remain resilient for three reasons:
- Both nuclear exports and defence have direct ties to state budgets, strategic influence goals and external partnerships.
- Countries in the Global South still seek Russian nuclear and military technology, reducing the effectiveness of isolating pressure.
- Russia’s global trade routes and alternative financial networks have helped sustain export flows despite Western intent to constrain them.
What this means: Moscow has not created an alternative global order, but it is far from a failing legacy power. It has positioned itself as a credible option for states seeking diversification despite conditions that would cripple less strategically focused nations. Russia’s future in these sectors will hinge on its ability to deliver projects despite sanctions, sustain attractive financing terms despite war costs and compete technologically amid Western and East Asian advances.
Read the full analysis:
The Geopolitical Desk
🇱🇾 A clash of competing visions for Libya in 2026 (preview)
What happened: The United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) is preparing to hold its “Structured Dialogue” forum, in which Libyans representing various elements of the country will negotiate a new vision for Libya’s future. This is part of UNSMIL’s broader political roadmap aimed at facilitating national elections, but the process has come into conflict with Libya’s political leaders and a separate political initiative led by the United States.
