As explained in our pre-war scenario planning, killing the Supreme Leader was expected to lead to regional war. Now, West Asia is entering a new and uncertain phase.
While the immediate battlefield remains centred on military strikes and air campaigns, the conflict’s true strategic front is the hard commodities market.
Iran’s ability to escalate does not primarily rest on conventional military victory; its strategy is to create enough havoc in markets to regain deterrence and force the U.S. to back down.
Tehran’s leverage lies in its capacity to disrupt oil, gas, shipping and aviation networks that pass through the Gulf, one of the most critical energy corridors in the world.
At present, several escalation pathways remain available to the Islamic Republic.
Some would destabilise global commodity markets within weeks. Others could trigger broader regional confrontation involving Gulf states, NATO actors, or neighbouring powers.
The following scenarios outline the most plausible risks as the conflict evolves and their current probability.
