The United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) is entering its most fragile chapter yet. It has no allies, little leverage, and a reputation weighed down by a decade of political misfires. Yet the opportunity to reset remains if the new Special Representative, Hanna Tetteh, acts decisively.
Cornered at home and unable to convene even his own cabinet, Government of National Unity (GNU) Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba flew to London in a last-ditch attempt to secure high-level meetings with UK officials.
Libya’s energy sector remains both the backbone of its economy and a mirror of its political fragility. The announcement of its first international oil and gas licensing round in 18 years earlier this year has been a welcome development and triggered renewed interest from IOCs and investors.
A recent Turkish mediated agreement between the GNU Prime Minister and Rada have cooled tensions for now, but risks still loom as Dabaiba continues to look for war.
Greece is likely hoping that by furthering investment in the eastern-based Reconstruction and Development Fund, led by the Haftar family, it can derail plans for the House of Representatives (HoR) to approve Turkish claims in the eastern Mediterranean.
In rare talks between the Haftars, the Dabaibas, and U.S. envoy Massad Boulous in Rome, discussions touched on Tripoli’s fragile stability and Libya’s oil sector, hinting at a potential shift that could redefine power dynamics in Libya.
With growing political instability in western Libya, there is a clear sense that the status quo is shifting, triggering an intensified struggle over the country’s vast natural wealth.
